Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Saturday, April 28, 2018

Anxious Times

It's been interesting watching the left's reaction to the recent scholarship that places "status anxiety" at the root of Trump's election, as opposed to "economic anxiety."  For a certain segment of the Left, this doesn't explicitly say "RACISM" in big, flashing neon letters, so it's another cop out by corporate media.  Of course, it's describing a social science paper, and "status anxiety" is a social science term.  Racism is at risk of being a verbal weapon thrown around so much that its blade gets dull.  Of course racism is at the root of status anxiety, and the article places it front and center.  Sexism, too, though that isn't getting the same treatment.

What is missing is that there is definitely a link between status anxiety and economic anxiety.  It's not that Trump voters were especially poor; they weren't.  They could, however, see evidence of economic decline all around them, especially the decline in well paying jobs for high school graduates.  Dad may have had a good job, but Junior can't find work beyond minimum wage service McJobs. 

One thing that some social scientists have suggested is that prosperity correlates with social liberalism.  When you feel economic secure, you are more generous, both economically and socially.  the broad prosperity of the '50s and '60s was an important reason why the civil rights movement both took place and succeeded.  When you feel threatened, you retreat to the jingoistic and particularlist rhetoric and structures of conservatism.  You especially feel threatened by "out groups" who reinforce your sense of insecurity and threat.

Prosperous people are very often more socially liberal on issues of race, gender and sexual orientation. 

Some strategists have argued that this analysis of Trump voters means that Democrats should abandon efforts to reach Trump voters, because racism and sexism are anathema to the party.  While the latter is true, and should be, Democrats should absolutely be out to poach Trump voters, especially those independent minded WWC voters and suburban social moderates.  You will never win the Deplorables, and you really shouldn't even try.

However, you are going to have to peel off some of those angry, disaffected voters of the sort that Conor Lamb won in the special election.  You only need to strip away about 10% of the GOP electorate, and you can do it without abandoning your base.

The argument that the GOP is the "party of corruption" is particularly strong in the Age of Trump (and Pruitt and Ryan and Farenholdt and Kushner).  The idea that the GOP is the "party of Wall Street" was made for you by their tax cut bill and by the attacks on Obamacare.  Those attacks are as true for a disgruntled, white former steel worker as they are for an underemployed African American trying to string together three part time jobs.

The bullshit "either/or" arguments that are in large part a proxy re-litigation of the 2016 presidential race is just lazy thinking.

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