Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Impeachy Keen

Most House and Democratic leadership has been very reticent to embrace impeachment, much to the consternation of the Democratic base.  Trump seems manifestly guilty of numerous crimes, and to an uncertain degree he can't be charged with some crimes while still in the White House.  The other problem is that so many of the crimes pre-date his election - his tax fraud, his insurance fraud, moneylaundering - that it's tough to know whether they are properly impeachable offenses.

But I think Josh Marshall makes some important points.  First, the House needs to investigate before they impeach.  You need to look like a neutral investigator rather than someone who is simply looking for any excuse to impeach.  The GOP used Benghazi, the Fast and the Furious and Solyandra to try and gin up controversies in order to delegitimize Obama, but their transparent agenda rendered those investigations DOA.  The categorical difference in criminality (Obama wasn't, Trump is) matters to those who have already convicted Trump.  But the House needs to be seen as upholding the institutions and norms of government.  There are too many people who look at the aggressive bad actions of Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump and conclude that the Democrats need to do the same.  Great, they can rule over the ruins.  Yippee.

Secondly, impeaching without a shred of hope of convicting in the Senate is problematic.  If you impeach and the Senate decides not to remove, then Trump gets weirdly exonerated, not because he's innocent, but because the GOP continues to put Trump ahead of the country and even their party's long term prospects.

Investigate, indict the bit players, build the case...and maybe you introduce impeachment hearings in the fall of 2020.  Run against Trump!  He's uniquely unpopular!  Hope for a second blue wave that creates a Senate majority (not 60 votes, sadly) and solidifies the House and (most importantly) state house and governor's races, so you can control redistricting.

I want the son of a bitch gone as much as anyone (not being held in a cage on the southern border), but there are sound strategic reasons not to rush into a pre-determined impeachment.

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