Josh Marshall does a nice job explaining what he calls "Biden Realism." (sub.req.) Basically, the race - despite all the minor candidates jumping in and out - has been remarkably steady. If the election were held today, Joe Biden would become the next president. As Marshall points out, Biden has a steady and consistent lead in the polls. Running against Trump may or may not mitigate his gaffe-prone style, but his basic decency would seem to suggest he's pulling in voters from the suburbs - marginal Democrats - in ways that others aren't. He's also doing very well among African American voters, which is ironic given Harris and Booker's place in the field. Warren is surging, whereas Sanders seems stuck at 15%.
The biggest takeaway from the recent polling is that Trump is mired at 38-40%. No reputable polls have him beating that ceiling.
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