War Drums

A few things are likely simultaneously true:
- The attacks on the Saudi oil facility were likely carried out by Houthi rebels in Yemen.
- Iran likely supplied them with the weapons and possibly trained them how to use them, possibly even suggesting targets.
- Saudi Arabia has sponsored a vicious war against the Houthi.
- Iran is using the Houthi to strike at Saudi Arabia.

The ouster of John Bolton is a good thing for the coming weeks.  We have no coherent Middle East policy - Thanks, Jared! - and if Netanyahu wins re-election, that could drag the entire region closer to all-out war.

Iran is a bad actor.  Saudi Arabia is a bad actor. People who assume Saudi Arabia is our friend are the same sort of people who think their pot dealer is their buddy or that the stripper really likes them.  Because we are led by a blustering manchild, any one of the regional actors could think that he is easily manipulated, which he is, but that could lead to terrible miscalculations.

The amazing thing about the Trump Administration so far has been simultaneously its ability to shoot itself in the foot repeatedly, yet also not have to react to a truly global crisis.  Puerto Rico might be as close as we've come, but so far, Trump has only stepped on his own rakes.  He has yet to have the garden shed fall on top of him.  That could change soon.