These poll numbers from the South should be concerning for Republicans. The states polled are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Of those states, only Virginia voted for Clinton, and they don't like Trump too much, if last night's Nationals game is any indication. His job approval rating in those states is 52% approve, 47% disapprove, 1% who is Donald Trump?
You have to figure that Trump is killing it in Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina and Mississippi. He's likely floundering in Virginia. To give you some examples, Trump won 62% in Alabama, 60% in Arkansas, 59% in Louisiana, 58% in Mississippi, 55% in South Carolina and 60% in Tennessee. He only won 44% in Virginia.
That leaves Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas. In Georgia, Trump only won 50.7% of the vote, though Clinton only carried 45% as Gary Johnson ran pretty strongly in Georgia. Still, Trump could be under 50% by now. In Florida, he only won 49%. Same in North Carolina. He won barely 52% in Texas. Texas.
The problem of course, is that Clinton only earned 47.8% in Florida, 46% in NC and 43% in Texas. Some of this is because of Hillary Clinton, some is because of the (D) next to her name. Still, Trump's approval numbers in the part of the country where he should be strongest suggest that there is a pretty decent opportunity to flip Georgia and North Carolina. I hold out no hope for a free and fair election in Florida.
Still, if Trump is struggling to keep his approval numbers above water in the South, what does that say about his ability to retain Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Wisconsin? What about Arizona?
As the news cycles continue to flay Trump's ego and his polls numbers slowly erode, he will likely rely more on his base instincts to rally the Trumpenproletariat. That means more of "Trump Unleashed."
It's going to be ugly as the world's most powerful narcissist decompensates on the world stage.
No comments:
Post a Comment