Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, November 22, 2019

All Roads Lead To Moscow

Fiona Hill's testimony was, frankly, kind of awesome. The chewy, working class, Durham accent and the absolute inability to brook bullshit made her an instant celebrity in the more academic reaches of the internet. Her fundamental point, however, was one that needs drawing out.

Hill made it abundantly clear that anyone parroting the line that somehow Ukraine was behind election meddling in 2016 was serving Putin, not America. The overwhelming consensus of American intelligence agencies is that Russia used various strategies on social media to shape and influence the election. They also were responsible for hacking the DNC server and releasing emails at times that were most felicitous for the Trump campaign. The Russians wanted Trump to win and they worked to make it happen.  This is illegal and the Trump campaign was at least tacitly working to facilitate Russian help.

This is the truth, as best we can discern it, about the 2016 election.

At some point, Trump - and therefore Republicans - have seized on a bonkers conspiracy theory that somehow it was Ukraine who interfered in the 2016 election.  This has proven to be a nice wedding of Russian counterintel and Republican susceptibility to conspiracy theories. In Trumpistan, remember, every allegation is a confession. And therefore, whatever Dems allege, they, too, must have done. So, if Democrats allege that Russia helped Trump (and they did), then Ukraine must've helped the Democrats.

There is, to put it mildly, no evidence for this - beyond some Ukrainian politicians who didn't like Trump, because he was obviously so cozy with the bastard who has invaded and annexed part of their country.  Those crazy Ukrainians!  But animus against Trump is not the same as action, and there is no evidence that Ukraine was as bold or stupid enough to meddle in the election of an ally they needed to preserve their territorial integrity.

It has been very difficult for Republicans to plausibly defend Trump's behavior. Hell, he's gone on TV and committed the very crime that he's being impeached over. He did it.  The evidence is overwhelming.  Because the GOP is more concerned with loyalty to their clan (or is it klan) than they are to the country, they need a line of defense - any line at all - to defend Hair Furor.

It should be concerning that they have alighted on a defense that matches so nicely with the Kremlin's own counterintel strategy.  Hill was trying to make that point, and I think she did to those who have not simply walled themselves off from reality.

For about 20 years, there has been an argument that the future of the country is Democratic. Younger people tilt very strongly towards Democrats and the left, because they are less white and more educated than previous generations.  The only Republican to crack 50% in a presidential election since 1988 was Dubya Bush's reelection in 2004, and he only managed 50.7%.  Trump, as we know, squeezed into office by running an inside straight.  Pennsylvania and Michigan seemed lost to him, which bring the Democratic floor to 268.

In order to maintain a hold on the White House, Republicans will need to rely on undemocratic means to maintain power. We saw some of this in Georgia when Brian Kemp used voter suppression to beat Stacey Abrams.

The importance of impeaching and removing Trump is that is subverting democracy by using foreign autocracies to help him win elections. The problem is that aligns with GOP needs.  And if that means embracing Putin, they will do so.

The Republican Party is telling us who they are.  We should listen.

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