The NYTimes poll that had Trump winning the swing states really does seem like an outlier. Meanwhile, the WaPo released a poll that has Trump getting absolutely thumped by every major Democratic candidate.
In the background, there is another story brewing. It's about "the best economy ever" that Trump touts as perhaps his only net positive. Unemployment is ticking up in those critical Rust Belt states, including Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina. (And if someone can explain to me the numbers in Alabama and Mississippi, I'd be obliged.)
The post-2008 economy has produced a bunch of jobs, but many of them are pretty crappy. Under-employment, poor wage growth, lingering debt...all of these are critical issues facing working class voters.
Looming on the horizon are two other trends: Trump's trade war is not only hurting American farmers, but it's beginning to take a toll on manufacturers. The Conservative Party looks poised to win the December election, at which point, Brexit will happen and Europe will slip into a recession.
The only things keeping Trump afloat are rigid partisanship and a reasonably sound economy. That last bit might not last until election day.
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