Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Thursday, December 12, 2019

The Brexit Election

Britain is voting to determine their next Parliament. It seems likely, at this point, that Boris Johnson might get a majority of the seats, especially if the Brexit Party or UKIP wins a few seats that would allow him to ram through a Hard Brexit.

If Johnson wins an outright majority, resist the urge to see a harbinger of Trump's re-election.  Pay attention, instead, to the outright popular vote for the Conservatives and the Brexit party.  My guess is that this number stays under 44% - Trump's approval rating here in the states.  The nature of British elections means that a plurality of the popular vote can get you a majority in the Commons.  In fact, give the fractured nature of the Lib Dems, SNP and Labour, I could expect Johnson to get a majority in the Commons with under 40% of the vote.

Or maybe the left surprises us and gets their act together....just kidding.

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