Predictable

Covid-19 has been remarkably unpredictable and predictable at the same time.  The actual biology of the virus is still largely unknown, though they are making progress on understanding it every day.

The spread of Covid-19 is much more predictable. Early on, I felt it was pretty obvious that it would hit rural America later than urban America, but that it would hit hard when it did.  That looks to be exactly what is happening. The super-spreader clusters are a feature of this illness and the meat packing plants and prisons that constitute a major source of employment in some rural areas are turning out to the petri dishes for the disease. Rural nursing homes are another hot spot, at least for deaths.

The article linked above notes that rural poverty is a huge contributing factor to the spread of Covid-19 in these communities.  Hospitals have shut down as rural populations have declined and doctors have retreated to more prosperous communities. Younger, healthier people move away and in some areas undocumented workers come in to do the jobs that normally are done by the young. And while this isn't a health insurance problem, it is a health care system problem that exposes the vulnerability of the poor, the undocumented, people of color and the aged.

It is also - it must be said - a problem of education levels. It is difficult to look at videos like this and not be shocked. That is a super spreader event. Trump said he "loved the poorly educated." They get their news from him and Fox and they are engaged in levels of self-destructive behavior that isn't exactly new, but it has health ramifications for more of us.

Covid was always going to morph into a series of outbreaks and hot spots.  Even under the best plan, this was the future.  South Korea has been putting out brush fires since they started re-opening, but they have a competently managed system in place.  We do not, so our brush fires will become wildfires.

Meanwhile, Trump played golf yesterday.