Putting Mitch McConnell Out Of A Job

The 2020 election is of course a terribly important election for the future of American democracy.  Will we return to a corrupt oligarchy like in the late 19th century? Or will we return to a competently administered national government?

It's also a tremendous experiment in what determines electoral outcomes. In 2016, Trump benefited from two things: partisan loyalty and low favorables for both candidates. I would argue that the latter factor was driven by implicit and explicit sexism, especially towards "women of a certain age."  So, Republicans voted for Trump, because "how bad could it be," and enough independents voted against Hillary Clinton.

Those dynamics are likely very, very different. Joe Biden (despite the sketchy charges leveled by Tara Reade) is a largely likable guy.  In some ways the Covid lockdown benefits him, because he's able to avoid the gaffe-filled events that typify his earlier presidential runs.  He can run ads like this, instead.

There is a typical pundit-driven narrative that elections are won or lost by messaging and campaigning and gaffes and ad buys and candidate appearances and (especially for Democrats) policy proposals.

I think that narrative is bullshit. Campaigns are won or lost based on fundamentals and the candidate's personality. The fundamentals going into the 2020 election are going to be brutal. Unemployment will still be historically high and people will still be dying of this goddamned virus. Trump is incredibly unpopular, but he still - for some reason - had decent marks on the economy.  That will be gone by November.

In this article, Republican strategists fret about the future of their Senate majority.  Tellingly, they are having to straddle a line between distancing themselves from Trump's disastrous handling of the pandemic (and everything else) and alienating the Deplorables. The laughable part to me is that Senators are going to try and run on the various stimulus packages that have worked their way through Congress.  Of course, the stimulus isn't reaching everyone and the GOP could commit hari kari by not passing any more.

People aren't going to vote for Susan Collins or Martha McSally because they voted for a stimulus bill in April. They are likely going to be incredibly pissed and they will hold the GOP responsible as a party. In 1932, Democrats picked up 12 Senate seats and 97 House seats. They even picked up 11 governorships. 

Every election with an incumbent is a referendum on that incumbent, but in presidential years, the party holding the White House is the target. 

Let's flip the Senate.