Crossroads

The past ten days have been a tough time in a tough year in a tough era. I had a very discouraging discussion with a student who is obviously depressed and despairing over the state of America, especially for young men of color like him.  I really couldn't, in good conscience, tell him it would be OK.  I just don't know.

Social unrest can sometimes lead to progress, but usually that requires political actors to wed an agenda to the protests. Congress has been largely sidelined by the pandemic - since so many of them are over 65, an unexamined flaw in our gerontocracy.  At best, we will see a patchwork of reforms at the local level. They will immediately be assailed by other political forces, including Trump's hopelessly corrupted DOJ.

The authoritarian theater that Trump has tried to use to exploit this has largely failed to do anything outside his base.  Much of it has been dismissed as absurd.  Getting into a fight with an Episcopalian bishop is...something. It seems as if there has been some backing off the use of the military, and the temperature seems to be falling a bit in many places.  We all know that it won't take much to reignite the protesters' righteous anger, and there are those that want American cities to burn so they can install Trump as a dictator on behalf of white Americans without college degrees.

The presence of purported law enforcement personnel around DC without any identifying badges is a tactic right out of Putin's takeover of Crimea.  The difference is Crimea was largely, ethnically Russian; DC is among the most solidly Democratic constituencies in the country. The possibility of escalating violence is real. (I should hazard a guess that these paramilitary groups in DC are mercenaries hired by Erik Prince. Again, this is right out of the dictator's playbook.

Every 48 hour period seems to be a crisis about the future of democracy in America. We are seeing how Trump behaves when he gets embarrassed and thwarted: he calls for violence and summons armed thugs to protect his person.

What happens in November?  It's early in the polling on this, but the early returns are fascinating. Biden appears to be leading from anywhere to 5-10 percentage points, and Trump's favorables and support have not budged from 40% neighborhood.  Biden gave a very good speech yesterday, and Obama is going to give one today. Trump will Tweet angrily from his bunker that he is not in a bunker.  I don't think this civil unrest will re-elect Donald Trump.

So, once again, my main concerns about November are twofold.

First, we need to destroy Trumpism at the polls. He needs to win about 35% of the vote -Hoover and Alf Landon territory.  We need to carry a net of 6-7 Senate seats.  We need to make Trumpism radioactive in American politics. (Here's a case that if it's close we have a constitutional crisis.)

Second, will we have a free and fair election? We have seen how Trump behaves when cornered.  What happens if he's looking at polls that have him losing 60-40? Or 65-35?  What does he do in the weeks of late October and early November?

Can his narcissistic armor blind him enough so that he doesn't see the Blue Wave coming?