Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, February 7, 2021

Not Sure I Buy It

 Martin Longman points out how the GOP is on the losing end of demographics and is losing members in the weeks since 1/6. Something has broken among moderate Republicans.

His worry, which I don't share, is that the Democratic gains in suburbs will mean they will abandon the "little guy." The party of FDR will become the party of tax cuts.  

I think there are two things that will undermine this thesis. First, there is a LOT of room for growth in tax increases among the very rich. We can just check in with Elizabeth Warren if we need a plan for that. Democrats can raise substantial amounts of taxes without putting the pinch on a lawyer living in Cobb County. 

Secondly, everything I'm seeing is that most people simply don't think ideologically...unless they are ideologues. They join a party for one reason - say climate change or LGBT rights - and then come to adopt the rest of the party positions, unless they cross some bright line for them. Upper middle class suburbanites have zero problem raising money off Jeff Bezos. Being Democrats will change suburban voters. There was a time when the flight to the suburbs was about fleeing integration. I don't think that has the same influence on college educated suburbanites. 

The other thing is that suburban college educated voters show up in the midterms. Low information, working class voters are less likely to show up. They showed up for Trump, but unless there is someone who can harness that demographic, they aren't showing up for Ted Cruz or Ron Desantis.

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