I feel like we will be getting back to normal with Covid sooner rather than later, and by sooner, I mean summer. I was taken aback by claims that you might be able to spread it after you have been vaccinated. It turns out that's not exactly true, in fact it's likely false. The structure of the initial trials back in the fall simply prohibited them from being able to say with any certainty if being vaccinated stopped you from being able to spread the disease. The early data from mass vaccination is promising. As we pass the half million mark of deaths, we also reckon with the fact that over 28,000,000 Americans have had confirmed cases of Covid, and we can safely assume the number of people actually infected is much higher. Since so many people exhibit no symptoms, it's safe to assume significant numbers of people have had the virus and shook it off, giving them some immunity going forward.
As we approach the 44,000,000 mark of vaccines, we are also seeing real evidence that even the first shot provides real protection. Almost 1,500,000 people are getting vaccinated daily. That means by early May another 100,000,000 Americans could have their Fauci Ouchies. At that point, you start to bump up against the millions of Americans who simply won't get the shot. At the same time, if you add up the tens of millions who have had the virus - even if they never knew it - and the half of Americans who will likely have been vaccinated, then the spread of the disease should dramatically slow. Warm weather will do wonders, too.
Covid will eventually become an endemic disease. The Trump team made two assumptions that were wrong at the time but will become true as we move forward. We will reach herd immunity, but through a combination of almost unchecked spread in some states and mass vaccinations. And it will eventually become like the flu, requiring a yearly booster and killing some of the vulnerable.
So, as we pass the grim milestone of half a million deaths, I think the worst is pass.
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