Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Monday, April 26, 2021

The Census

 We have the winners and losers of Congressional seats (and therefore Electoral College votes).

Given that Democrats tend to cluster in cities, there is a natural gerrymander in favor of Republicans, and in several states they have control of redistricting, which should exacerbate these trends. Still, here are my best guesses.

Democrats could gain a seat:
Colorado, Montana, Oregon
These Western states have seen some "urban" growth and Colorado, in particular seems ripe to add a Blue seat.

Republicans could gain a seat:
Texas (at least one, Texas gets two), North Carolina (from gerrymandering), Florida (gerrymandering)

States that are losing a seat:
California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia.

I would think that Ohio will be a lost Republican seat and West Virginia HAS to be a lost GOP seat. Given the urban populations of PA and IL, the lost seats could come from rural areas.

It will be interesting to see...

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