Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, April 23, 2021

What Do Polls Measure?

 Reading this ABC/WaPo poll makes me wonder what's actually being captured here. To a large degree, this poll is simply measuring the partisan and demographic divide in the country. Democrats and most independents feel that more needs to be done to police the police and protect minorities from police misconduct. More Republicans feel that way than they used to, but they are still largely less sympathetic to the idea. The hardcore 1/3 of Americans who are borderline or outright fascist want the police to do more.

I have a hunch we will see more of this sort of polling that simply captures existing partisan divisions through different lenses. The question 2016 and 2020 ask is whether we are capturing a certain segment of the population that more explicitly backs Trump and Trumpism. If we are not seeing them, we are in deep trouble. If they are being captured, then it's pretty clear that Trumpism was the last gasp of a generation of whites who will be increasingly marginalized in a changing America.

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