When you read about how figures like Lindsay Graham or Kevin McCarthy broke with Trump on January 6th and then came crawling back within days, you can't help but wonder why. I get that the GOP primary electorate is the Trumpenproletariat and you can't allow too much daylight between yourself and then fever swamps of Trumpistan. But you don't have to strip Liz Cheney of her leadership position. That's a choice.
There is already pre-emptive freaking out by Democrats - who are naturally poised to freak out over anything since Florida 2000, Ohio 2004 and 2016 - that Dems will lose the House in 2022. They point to "history, " like 1994 and 2010. But the Republicans added House seats in 2002, and disregarding that result because it's Republicans is just...bad history. An incumbent party can absolutely build on its majority in the first midterm election.
I have to wonder if the GOP leadership sees what I think I see. They got smoked in 2018, and they got smoked in places they usually win. Then they ran unexpectedly well in 2020, but a lot of those margins were really, really small. If they are, in fact, losing high frequency college educated White voters, then they need the energy of the Trumpenproletariat.
Max Weber described three forms of legitimacy: rational-legal, traditional and charismatic. Trump drew on all three, actually. He won the electoral college in 2016 (rational-legal), he relied on Herrenvolk mythology of America's past (traditional) and he represented and was perceived as a personal savior by his cultists. But it is his norm-smashing cult of personality that continues to have a hold on the GOP. It is that cult of personality that has persisted, even as Trump himself has disappeared almost miraculously from the broader public eye.
It looks to me like the GOP leadership is basically admitting that they cannot win without buying into the Trump personality cult. They are reliant on his seemingly magical ability to motivate a certain class of voter. Biden, however, made real inroads into WWC voters last fall. The loss of Hispanic support is not something I see as permanent. I think in South Florida it was the Socialist Boogeyman and general support for the incumbent president. Hispanic voters are very sensitive on immigration issues and are not in favor of "open borders." When Bolivarian Socialism and open borders do not materialize under Biden, I imagine he will do about as well as Clinton in 2024 amongst Latin voters. Biden won slightly more College Degree Whites that Trump, but it wasn't a landslide.
If we look at the overall picture, we see this: Republicans have won the popular vote once since 1988. They have been over-represented in Congress and the White House because of the excessive rural tilt of our electoral system and partisan gerrymanders. Even Trump's victory in 2016 was a minority victory, but it was a victory.
How can the GOP keep a group of voters - who famously did not show up for Mitt Romney in 2012 - showing up for them down the road? They have basically hitched themselves to Cult 45, and in the process locked themselves into cultivating that group of voters at then expense of every other group.
Going into 2022, the central question will be - as it always is during a midterm - is who will show up at the polls. The wrinkle is how will the events of January 6th resonate that far in the future? Stripped of his Twitter megaphone and the trappings of office, Trump risks becoming a parody of the fallen caudillo. Cult 45 seems to make up about 30-35% of the population. The GOP absolutely needs them to vote, but will courting them leave the other 65% cold?
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