Does Policy Matter?

 Ron Brownstein in The Atlantic lays out the thinking among Democratic strategists on how to avoid losing the House in 2022. Basically, the thinking is that incumbent presidential parties lose seats in the first midterm and Biden's best chance of retaining control of the House is to "Go Big."

There are solid policy reasons for Going Big, not the least of which is the fact that Dems will more likely than not lose the House. Get your big ticket items locked in. The country needs a lot of work, so let's do a lot of work.

I'm not sure the political calculations hold water.

Let's say Biden is able to get 80% of his current agenda passed. Massive new spending programs, a booming economy emerging from the pandemic, popular tax increases on the rich...most of it gets done. Will that make an actual difference with an electorate that is increasingly polarized?

One trend we saw in 2016 and 2020 was the emergence of the Hidden Trump voter and the Suburban Democrat. In 2018, those Suburban Democrats flipped the House. Overwhelmingly college educated, those voters show up in midterms and have been a reliable source of off year electoral gains for Republicans. If that demographic has really and truly switched allegiances, then the usual GOP advantage in midterms could be blunted. Similarly, if the GOP is shrinking into a band of aggrieved Trumpists, what happens when Hair Furor isn't on the ballot? The more GOP House members have to embrace Trumpist rhetoric and QAnon fucknuttery, the more those Suburban Voters slip away.

More generally, the idea that some policy achievement actually drives people's vote doesn't seem to hold true. Presumably, if a president and his party achieves something that benefits a huge portion of the electorate, then they will benefit. That doesn't always happen. 

People vote their tribe and we aren't through determining what the post-Trump tribal landscape is.

The biggest advantage the GOP has is redistricting. However, the Census was likely flawed and the result is very few seats actually changing. This piece by The Hill lays out some scenarios. Some takeaways.

First, we know the GOP will lose a seat in West Virginia. The Hill posits that because California uses an independent commission Democrats will lose a seat. More likely those Orange County battlegrounds remain battlegrounds, but with one fewer seat. 

Next, they say that NY will redistrict away a GOP seat, which is most likely, but that Pennsylvania - which will use the Democratic Governor and GOP Assembly, the Democrats will likely lose a seat. Maybe. Conor Lamb is immediately vulnerable, but he's won twice already.

Ohio is already egregiously gerrymandered. In 2020, it went 53-45 to Trump, but it has a delegation that packs that 45% of Democrats into 4 of the 16 districts. By losing a seat, it will be harder to pack them in there. Most likely, they retain their four seats and one current seat becomes a battleground.

Illinois could wind up with an additional Democratic gerrymander that deprives the GOP of one of their southern districts. Michigan is a commission based redistricting, so it's anyone's guess.

Colorado is likely an additional Democratic seat (plus, Boebert has to lose, doesn't she?) and Oregon might go either way, as the GOP has a say in redistricting there. Most likely, Colorado adds a Dem seat in the Front Range and Oregon adds a competitive seat.

Montana is tricky. Will the western part of the state with Bozeman, Missoula and so on trend purple? Democrats can win in Montana. Dividing the state in two (via commission) could lead to a competitive seat there.

Texas is running up against the physical limits of gerrymandering and North Carolina's court has already thrown out one GOP gerrymander. Florida is...damn...can we stop caring about Florida?

Basically, the GOP will have a gerrymander advantage in Georgia and maybe Arizona - two states trending purple. But Democrats will be able to gerrymander Virginia and possibly Illinois. 

All you need a is a one vote majority in the House. If Democrats can hold on to high frequency voters in the suburbs, and Trumpists stay home without their Orange Messiah on the ballot...buoyed by a rebounding economy...I don't think it's out of the question that Democrats survive the 2022 midterms.