Once upon a time, the bullshit axiom used by election horserace talkers was that you had to win "bellwether" states like Ohio and Missouri. Those were states full of Real Muricans and determined who would be presidenting by appealing to those Real (White) Muricans.
Ohio does remain a little bellwethery, as Obama won it twice, but Trump won it twice without winning a majority of the vote and losing re-election, because he is a loser who loses.
Missouri? The last time a Democrat won Missouri was 1996. Since then Al Gore and Hillary Clinton won the popular vote without it, Obama won twice and Biden once without it.
In 2012, Obama won 44% of the vote there, basically the same as in South Carolina. Clinton won 40%, roughly the same as South Carolina. Biden won 41% of the vote there and actually did BETTER in South Carolina. So..."Missouri: South Carolina Without the Nice Beaches."
All of this brings me to the Senate race next year.
Eric Greitens was the governor of Missouri until he was credibly accused of sexual assault. Now, he's working on his comeback by running for the Senate as a the Trumpist candidate in one of the Trumpiest states. But...you know...rapist. Now Trump has also been credibly accused of multiple counts of sexual assault and seemed to sail through those allegations. But at the point those allegations came out, Trump's Bizarro Charisma seemed to inoculate him from repercussions (although, again, never cracked 50% approval).
What happens when you play Trump's lyrics without his calliope music? If Greitens wins the nomination, does he win the seat? If so, does he match Trump's 56% of the vote or does he fall into a neck and neck race?
Keep an eye on the Show Me state.
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