Democrats May Be Learning

 There is news out of Oregon and New York that Democrats in those states are prepared to use their "trifecta" - control of both state houses and the governorship - to push through partisan gerrymanders.

In the abstract this is "bad" because partisan gerrymanders are bad. However, unilateral disarmament is also bad. Adam Silverman argues that partisan gerrymanders in TX, FL, GA and NC will basically hand the House to Republicans in 2022, unless Democrats counter with their own. I'm skeptical. North Carolina Courts have struck down some of the more absurd gerrymanders, and there is a Democratic governor, for instance.

Let's look at a few facts.

First, Republicans have already squeezed as many seats out of gerrymandering as they can. You reach a limit on how much you can gerrymander. The idea is to create a bunch of 80% Democratic districts and a bunch of 55% GOP districts, but eventually you do bump up against the remarkable unpopularity of the GOP and especially the declining support for the GOP in the suburbs and the declining population of rural America. 

Ohio, for instance, is already very heavily gerrymandered, with weirdly shaped D districts around Columbus and Cleveland. Ohio is losing a seat and it will be very hard to find a way to pack Democrats into tinier districts. Meanwhile, they are guaranteed to lose a seat in West Virginia. So, that's -2 seats. If NY and OR respond with gerrymanders, you could add a seat in Oregon and New York could add a few as well.

Texas is a great example of the limits of gerrymandering. Texas gets two more seats, and those will likely come from movement into cities like Houston, Austin and Dallas. While there are some areas between San Antonio and the Rio Grande that could be picked off by Republicans, they are going to struggle to find ways to create safe districts for Republicans.

Look at Houston:

I mean, how messed up is that? Only TX-2, the red district naturally, is held by a Republican, Dan Crenshaw. Only TX7 was close with Democrat Lizzie Fletcher winning by 10,000 votes or 50.8-47.5. Every other Democrat won over 70% of the vote. Republicans might be able to get their two additional seats out of Texas, but not much more than that.

I hope that Republicans count on suburbanites returning to the fold when they make their maps. I think they will be unpleasantly surprised. And I hope that Democrats leverage their ability to make maps that inflict the same painful effects on Republicans in NY, OR, possibly Colorado and Illinois, too.

Republican control of the House means Marjorie Traitor Greene running hearings on Hunter Biden's laptop for two years. It can't be allowed.