Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, September 3, 2021

How Democrats Govern Matters

 I've seen so many takes similar to Paul Waldman's that I guess it deserves a response (again).

Yes, Republicans are naked and cynical in their use and abuse of power. There are no better examples of this than Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett having lifetime appointments to the Supreme Court, despite the flagrant power play to NOT confirm Merrick Garland and RUSHING to confirm Barrett.

The problem is that the logical end point of Republican nihilism is Trumpism. If Democrats becomes similarly abusive of precedent and norms, America will collapse into civil disorder. Someone described American politics in the 21st century this way, "We elect a bunch of arsonists, who burn everything down. So we elect fire marshals and construction guys to rebuild the house, only we get impatient with the process so we re-elect the arsonists."

Now, I have my doubts about whether we will return the arsonists to power in 2022, at least in the House. My feeling is that 

A) The Republicans have squeezed every seat out of gerrymandering, and they will struggle to gain an additional advantage from the process.

B) Continued Republican anti-democratic practices - including the Texas abortion ban and their support of Trumpism and January 6th - will keep Democratic voters motivated for midterms in ways that typically aren't true for the incumbent party.

C) Trump will not be on the ballot and his cultists will struggle to summon the motivation to vote for people like Devin Nunes.

but most importantly

D) The suburbs - full of college educated voters - are switching to Democratic voting blocs. College educated voters are more likely to vote in midterms (see 2022, or even 2014), and their presence in suburbs will further complicate gerrymandering, which has taken GOP dominance of the suburbs for granted. 

The reason D is most important is that if the Democrats violate norms, they will lose their advantage in those suburbs among those college educated voters. That was the folly of "Defund the Police," it eroded the inroads among a population that wants the police to be better, not "gone." Defunding the police sounds like eliminating the police, no matter what its advocates say, and that is a fundamental violation of American norms and practices. It's within spitting distance of anarchy.

There are certainly things I would like to see Democrats do that are more "hardball" than they are wont to. Frankly, I would like to see a mild gerrymander of New York and Illinois. I hate gerrymandering, because it's fundamentally undemocratic, but I don't believe in universal disarmament.

Having more "show votes" would help define Republican intransigence, especially over abortion, unemployment benefits or even Afghanistan. Have a vote resolving that America should stay in Afghanistan for 20 more years.  Schedule it. See how it fares. Get Stephen Breyer to retire, the way Anthony Kennedy did. 

The Senate - and Joe Fucking Manchin and Krysten Look At Me Sinema - remains a huge hurdle. If Democrats had only won Maine and North Carolina's Senate races, we wouldn't be in this mess. The Senate map is a bit friendlier in 2022, but it will be largely irrelevant if Dems don't hold the House.

There ARE ways Democrats can improve their political positions in the run-up to 2022. Being more like Republicans is a terrible way to do that.

No comments: