Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, January 31, 2023

The Last Of Us

 I do not play video games, so I had never heard of the game The Last Of Us. When I heard Craig Mazin was making an HBO series with Pedro Pascal, it sounded interesting. Reviews were good, so I started watching, because - as the name of the blog implies - I like a good zombie show (even if it's not technically zombies).

And then Sunday's episode dropped and like just about everyone I was absolutely floored. After two episodes of "the world as we know it ending" and "this is why the plague it terrible" that established the world of TLOU, the show crafted an unbelievably moving story of love and the meaning of life. What's more, the roughly 60 minute short film nestled within a broader apocalyptic story featured two men rather than a heterosexual couple. Further, it didn't feel gimmicky. The reason Nick Offerman's Bill was a reclusive survivalist was precisely because he was closeted and resentful of the world.

I rewatched it last night, just to see if it was really as good as I thought or just "novel." It absolutely was as good as I had thought it was, in fact a second viewing allowed me to see just how well crafted an episode of television it was. It stands alone brilliantly as a stand-alone episode, but it also points to the broader theme of the show, which Bills says at the heartbreaking conclusion: "You were my purpose."

Oh, and Nick Offerman should start writing that Emmy speech.

Monday, January 30, 2023

Woke

 Apparently, McCarthy is waking up to the fact that his agenda is toxic. It will be interesting to see this play out on issues like the national sales tax, which McCarthy has promised votes on. 

It's unusual that the GOP is passing bills that are embarrassing to...themselves.

Sunday, January 29, 2023

Trust

 Morale amongst my fellow teachers is as low as I can recall. Some of this is because we have never come to terms with the real trauma Covid inflected on us. Teachers were "frontline" workers, but we weren't really treated as such. In fact, for many public school teachers, they were actively attacked for trying to look out for their and their student's health. It wasn't that bad here, but there was a strong sense of "We aren't going to be remote, no matter what you want or care for in your own personal health." Last January in particular was a decision made to simply white knuckle our way through it.

However, at least in our school, a lot of faculty anger comes from a farrago of bullshit decrees and mandates that come from school administration. Hours of "professional development" that could have been condensed into a few bullet points. Oversight of aspects of our teaching that never existed before. Regulations and requirements that we never had before.

All of this creates an atmosphere that the school's trustees and administration does not trust us to be professionals. 

Weird example: I was told I had to get fingerprinted for a background check. I've worked here for 23 years. Were they worried that I was not me? If they want to run a background check every three years, OK. We work with kids, so I guess I get it. But they need my fingerprints for this? I was fingerprinted when I started here. When I got them done, the Campus Safety officer who did them informed me that I was grandfathered into the new state rules, but that the Board wanted it done anyway. Sure, I lost a half hour, but in the end, that's just a half hour. It was the sense that I was somehow I needed extra scrutiny despite decades of service to the school.

Similarly, that same day, we got an email about outside work and how that can't interfere with or leverage your relationship to the school. I've read AP exams before, and they wanted a record of that. I guess? No one really knows. Apparently someone, somewhere was violating this rule. Perhaps intentionally, but more likely not. What I do know is that a sizable number of faculty members were asked to catalog any work they did that wasn't specifically school related. Again, we don't trust you.

Why does this matter? Because the school only functions when the faculty are trusted to do their jobs. What's more, the school only functions because the faculty are relied on to exhibit a sense of voluntary zeal for work outside that which is mentioned in our hire letter (we don't even have a contract). "Can someone chaperone a dance at another school?" "Can someone run a workshop on MLK Day?" "Can someone host international students over break?" One of our wrestlers was hurt last night and was in the ER until midnight. My assistant coach stayed with the wrestler until another faculty member - who was assigned as "emergency driver" came to relieve him - four hours later.

As I alit on this observation, it also occurred to me that this is true of America and the world as a whole right now. There is a terrible lack of trust in each other.

Trump voters don't trust me, because they think I'm secretly out to make America a Gay Socialist Woke Hellhole. I don't trust Trump voters, because...<waves hands at everything>. The breakdown in institutions is less about the institutions themselves than about our trust in each other. A sizable number of Americans no longer trust basic medicine.

I don't really have any observation beyond that at this point, but it strikes me as fundamental to our current problems.

Saturday, January 28, 2023

Tyre Nichols

 We can add another name to the wall of young Black men killed by the police for no apparent or justifiable reason. Cynically, the fact that all the officers who murdered him were themselves Black explains why they themselves were charged. Police aren't usually charged in these crimes, so that's...good?

As the irreplaceable Radley Balko has pointed out, the problem extends beyond race to police culture. This is most true of the paramilitary type of units that killed Nichols. As he wrote:

1. Don’t create “elite” police units who get special privileges, less oversight, and get to take shortcuts. 2. Definitely don’t give those units names like “Scorpion.” 3. The cops who really, really want to work on those units are the last cops who should be working on them.

The simplistic ACAB formula is both untrue and a political loser for reformers. However, these "elite" units and the military "warrior" mindset that they engender is a clear problem. It led to Breonna Taylor's death, too. 

Once again, I'm reminded of what I heard Deray McKesson say. Black lives matter includes the idea that they need GOOD police, not NO police. Police who see themselves as warriors in occupied territory are bad police. 

Friday, January 27, 2023

This Could Be Really Good News

 A frustrating aspect of climate policy has been synching up the need for action with the appetite for disruption and the restraint of cost. 

Put another way: We have to put less carbon in the atmosphere. Full stop. There are myriad ways of doing that, but there will be some sort of trade off, because you are - by definition - altering the status quo. So, we have to do "something," there are a lot somethings we could do, but we have to balance the degree to which people want to upend their lives and how much we are willing to pay.

For instance, there is a tiny fraction of climate activists who want to destroy market capitalism, because it caused climate change. That won't get anywhere, and similarly, telling Americans they can't eat beef anymore would be a non-starter. The best climate policies are largely invisible in terms of their everyday impact on people. Wind and solar farms - or even rooftop solar - are largely invisible to your everyday life.

All of this is to say, if we really cared about climate change, the best solution in my mind has always been a massive global investment in nuclear energy.

In 2021, the US's energy production fell along these lines: 
- 20% renewable
- 19% nuclear
- 22% coal
- 38% natural gas

That 60% of hydrocarbon electrical generation is - in many ways - the low hanging fruit of climate policy. Natural gas is reasonably "clean," but it's still producing greenhouse gases. If you could replace 100% of coal and natural gas with nuclear power, you'd be in pretty good shape, without requiring people to drive EVs or return to some sort of paleolithic lifestyle living in a yurt.

That's why this is potentially really good news. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is notoriously difficult to work with and almost never approve new nuclear power plants. The reasoning is one of institutional motivations. If you feel your primary goal is to make sure that there is absolutely no nuclear accidents, then not having any nuclear power plants is a pretty good way to make that happen. That's substantively different from thinking, we need abundant but safe nuclear power.

The move to what is called Small Modular Reactors is much bigger news for climate than the miniscule gains in fusion power. This is an existing technology that can be scaled up in the next decade. The current module can produce 50-60 megawatts. SMRs do not produce the same heat as current nuclear reactors, which makes the potential for meltdowns far lower. They can also be "mass produced" in ways that allow for rapid scaling up.

Even with the falling cost of renewables, there will need to be a stable power grid for when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow. Right now, that gap is filled with natural gas, but there's no reason why the grid can't be nuclear with renewables the addition. Additionally, you could use an SMR to do energy expensive processes like direct air capture or water desalination.

Fears of nuclear meltdowns are mostly overblown, but that has led to an overcorrection towards safety that has led to an ineffectual response to climate change.

This could start to change that.

Thursday, January 26, 2023

Natural Progression

 Adam Serwer's dictum that "the cruelty is the point" is a lesson learned especially well by Ron DeSantis. His decision to ban AP African American History has not real value beyond being a bully towards kids interested in African American studies. His complaint about teaching Critical Race Theory in an African American History course is ridiculous. The idea that CRT was being taught in elementary schools was absurd, but it absolutely should be taught in African American studies.

Even more tellingly, they complain about teaching intersectionality. Intersectionality is the idea that we have multiple identities that we bring to every situation. You aren't simply White or Black. You are Black and Hispanic and male and a college graduate. These identities intersect to create the lens through which you understand and interact with the world. 

How is that problematic? Even if you concede the White Panic over CRT - which is bullshit - the idea that intersectionality is problematic seems to actually contradict other conservative talking points about race. I would think conservatives would embrace aspects of intersectional theory because it denies the overriding primacy of any one form of identity.

But of course, a principled objection to intersectional theory isn't the point. Intersectional theory is a "theory" and therefore "bad" because Chris Rufo said it was.

This is the natural progression of cruelty married to willful ignorance and anti-intellectualism. "Intersectional" sounds weird, so it's bad and must be crushed because muh freedumbs.

UPDATE: Jon Chait notes that Ron DeSantis is the perfect example of Critical Race Theory in practice.

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

The GOP Is Authoritarian

 The Post ran a story about a Quinnipiac poll that shows that Republicans and Democrats have very different takes on the document issues surrounding Trump and Biden (and now Pence).

Basically, 61% of Republicans say, improbably, that Trump did no wrong, whereas just 19% think he acted inappropriately. Democrats are more evenly split between saying Biden did no wrong (41%) and that he acted inappropriately (39%).

The first and most important distinction is that Trump obstructed the investigation, whereas Biden (and Pence) cooperated. The nature of the documents in Trump's possession are likely different, too, though we are still determining that. Trump's document scandal is uniquely Trumpian and uniquely bad. Biden and Pence are part of a systemic problem with classified documents.

For many Republicans, though, Trump is always right and any criticism is "fake news." Democrats are perfectly capable of chastising and holding their leaders accountable. That's the difference between democracy and a cult of personality. 

When various forms of Republican sexual malfeasance come to light, there's a certain segment of the Very Online who ask, "Why did Al Franken have to resign for a little inappropriate behavior, but Matt Gaetz doesn't have to resign despite being involved with underaged girls?" The difference is not in the institution of Congress, but in the parties themselves. Republicans will not expel George Santos, because they don't believe in democratic accountability. They believe themselves above the law and consequences.

OK, "not all Republicans" but you get the point.

Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Bidenism

 Yglesias has a nice rundown of something I've felt about Biden from around the time he started to secure the nomination in 2020. Basically, I do not think Joe Biden is a brilliant guy. His stutter and age make him an ineffective communicator, in comparison to Obama or Clinton. In some ways, his political oratory reminds me more of George W. Bush: folksy and occasionally awkward.

However, I've been quite impressed by Biden's accomplishments, which are far more than I thought they would be when he took the oath of office two years ago. While he lacks the crude dynamism of Lyndon Johnson, he shares with Johnson an instinctual grasp of politics as "the art of the possible." As Yglesias notes, this allows him to actually legislate with some support from Republicans.

Interestingly, Yglesias posits that Biden might actually get some legislation on issues such as immigration through the GOP House. Normally, I would scoff, but I think there is the possibility of some sort of reform of the asylum system. It's close to completely broken, and Republicans say they want to fix it. Whether or not there is anyone on the GOP side who is competent enough to actually craft meaningful legislation is a bigger question, but I wouldn't bet against Uncle Joe.

Hmmmmm

 I tend to eschew conspiracy theories, but when the FBI's top counter-intelligence officer turns out to be on the Russian payroll and the FBI "didn't find any evidence that Russia helped elect Trump" I actually get a wee bit suspicious.

Is there a worse regime in the world than Putin's Russia? The Myanmar junta has an argument, as they seem to be engaged in outright genocide at the moment. However, there is no regime in the world as outright problematic for the US than Russia. China is a bigger rival, but that rivalry lacks the antagonism that Russo-American relations have. China and the US do agree on certain elements of global stability. Russia is a globally destabilizing force. Fundamentally, Russia is more dangerous, because Russia is weaker.

Are there Chinese spies in the US? Of course. And there are American spies in Russia and China. But Russia evinces a desire to destabilize America that China does not. China wants an informational advantage, like the US does, so they can better plan for the future. Russia has to sow division and conflict, because they cannot compete economically, culturally or - as we see in Ukraine - militarily with the West.

It's also worth noting that Americans arguing in favor of Russia or simply engaging in fatuous whataboutism  - people like Tucker Carlson, Matt Taibbi or Tulsi Gabbard - should not be sitting at the table when making American policy or influencing American policy makers. At some point, Fox News needs to be seen as a foreign agent.

Also, it's worth noting that if Putin were to die tomorrow, things would not get measurably better and could, in fact, get worse.

Monday, January 23, 2023

Longest January Ever

 Anyone else feel like it's been January for about two months now?

Sunday, January 22, 2023

The Documents

 The ongoing drizzle of found documents in Biden's possession is the perfect bullshit DC press corpse disaster. Perhaps the best media critic in general is Josh Marshall, and he makes an excellent comparison to Whitewater. Is there a story here? Yes, there is. The story is that we have a very flawed system for managing classified documents. We also over-classify things, so that a separate part of the same story.

What we don't have is any sort of equivalency between what Trump did and what Biden did. Biden has been working to get these documents back to the National Archives. Trump actively obstructed that process. THAT is the story about prosecution. It's obstruction of the law by Trump.

Meanwhile, you have these ossified Congressmen like Dick Durbin who simply do not get what the political landscape is. I've been pleasantly surprised by how the Biden Administration has managed this new hyper-partisan atmosphere and nihilistic GOP. I was worried, precisely because Biden is part of that old school generation of chummy men's club in the Senate.

Of course, I also think that Biden's TEAM is pretty tuned in to the new DC reality. Biden and Congressional Democrats left the debt ceiling time bomb ticking rather than defuse it when they had the opportunity. Let's see how that plays out.

My gut says that if it is Biden v Trump 2.0 in 2024, then Biden wins easily. However, the DC press corpse and the the DC mindset among senior Democrats (in both meanings of the word "senior") will be an anchor around Biden's neck.

Saturday, January 21, 2023

Courting Embarassment

 Trump has long been a serial abuser of the courts. He uses lawsuits and threats of lawsuits to cow opponents into submitting to his demands. 

He may have reached a level where that will no longer work. 

Friday, January 20, 2023

So Much Winning

 Every once in a while, I come across an axiom that really explains certain aspects of our world. I by no means believe that there is one rule that will unlock perfect understanding, but axioms like "The cruelty is the point" or "every accusation is a confession" do really explain aspects of the modern American "conservative" movement.

I've increasingly centered my thinking on this issue around the concept of "winning."

When I hear "normie" Republicans talk about politics, I'm increasingly struck by how devoid of actual policy substance they are. I disagree with much, if not all, of Reagan's policies, but he was advancing a policy agenda. The desiccated corpse of Reaganism is still propped up in the corner of the GOP conference room, but so much of Trump and Trumpism is post-policy that - famously - the GOP didn't even bother to write a platform in 2020. The current House majority is pursuing an incoherent and profoundly unpopular set of disparate policies that seem less a governing agenda than and series of blogposts at Breitbart.

 There's a brutal cynicism in GOP politics today. Leaving aside the members of Cult 45, the average Republican seems "OK" with Trump...as long as Trump was winning. Trump's currently vulnerability when it comes to 2024 is that he lost in 2020. This is why denying that he lost goes beyond the narcissistic wound. It's not just the ego damage, it's that "winning" was his brand. 

How could evangelicals support Trump? He's twice divorced; he's likely never been to a church that wasn't a photo op; he couldn't cite scripture with a gun to his head. However, when he won* in 2016, that was enough. He was a "winner" and winning was all that mattered.

Since 1988, Republicans have won only one popular vote for president, and that was an incumbent president in a time of war. They are losing the culture war (in many cases they have already lost) among the population at large. Certain anti-democratic aspects of American politics allows them more power than they should probably have, but ultimately, they are starved for victories. Trump gave them on. Hell, George Santos gave them one.

I'm teaching Russia right now, and we just read an argument that the Russian state is "incoherent." Russian politics is non-ideological, in the sense that it does not address issues of freedom and equality - simply what is best for the state. The overlap between Putin and the American Right is at least partly based on this movement beyond a politics that might improve the material life of their citizenry. The descent into ethnonationalism is a politics beyond policy, beyond ideologies of freedom and equality. 

It's cynical and corrosive and probably a bigger threat than actual fascism in this country.

Thursday, January 19, 2023

Fake News

 Josh Marshall unpacks some of what we mean by "fake new" and the difficulties we have in countering it.

Two things stand out. The first is the role of motivated reasoning that informs people believing things that are patently untrue. Do people really believe that vaccines kill people? Or do many anti-vaxxers just see this as a useful cudgel to beat their political enemies? Certainly some people believe this, because some people are morons, but many more believe it because they want to believe it.

The second point was the oligarchic and monopolistic nature of media. Fox and it's imitators and Sinclair media dominant large portions of American media. This allows wealthy people to warp actual news consumption. 

The second is more easily dealt with. Could we pass an anti-trust act that targets social media and legacy media with bipartisan support? Maybe. Republicans hate social media, for some reason, and you could "trick" them into supporting something that also breaks up the News Corp and Sinclair monopolies.


Wednesday, January 18, 2023

I Mean...Seriously

 Apparently George Santos stole GoFundMe money dedicated for a veteran's service animal.

Just how low will Republicans go to protect this fucker?

Interesting Concept In A Maddening Argument

 The thing about Yglesias is that frequently it's difficult to tell the difference between someone asking provocative questions and someone just trolling for clicks. His latest straddles this line.

The thesis is one that he keeps returning to about "woke" DEI practices. I share some skepticism of the efficacy of these programs, but I often find arguments against them to be in bad faith. This argument is similar, as it caroms back and forth between good faith and bad.

His argument is that a lot of DEI practices are similar to the British class system in a John LaCarre story he just read. (This is typical of his writing, where he takes a personal experience and shoves it through a pre-existing prism.) He takes his experience at Harvard learning to tie a bow tie (honestly) and compares it to an upwardly mobile character in the LaCarre story who wants to assimilate the manners and affect of a gentleman by working at a posh "public" boarding school in Britain. 

The interesting nugget is the idea that "manners maketh man" is a deeply elitist idea, whether it's the black tie events he went to at Harvard, a LaCarre character peeling an apple "the wrong way" or the sort of language codes that arise in DEI training. Yglesias went to Dalton and extrapolates from that very elitist experience all private schools today. Some of what is frustrating is that a lot of these elite American schools (I teach at one!) make a substantive effort to create a more diverse student body. We are a relatively small school with the children of hedge fund managers and students who are, for lack of a better word, refugees. Fifth generation students at the school and students who will be the first in their family to go to college. 

We really don't care whether you can or cannot tie a bow tie.

However, the idea that we can tweak language practices to create inclusive communities seems to lack evidence to support it. It seems precisely like the strategy that an English major would come up with. There is also the psychology of "jargon" which is to create a language that is inherently exclusive. I tried to read Liam Kofi Bright's essay where he argues that "culture wars" are really just "white psychodrama". Interesting idea! However, the philosophy jargon immediately held my understanding at arm's length. I would have to research a new term every paragraph just to understand his point.

In Bright's essay (apparently), he argues that DEI practices are really just etiquette lessons like learning how to tie a bow tie or peel an apple the right way or know how a sherry glass is different from a port glass. 

Calling them etiquette lessons that instill a sense of cultural cache is a great example of that line between provoking interesting questions and being a troll. 

However, in trying to approach this criticism in good faith, I would say this. A great deal of DEI training revolves around language norms, because the people designing them are "language people." They spend a great deal of time thinking about and using language. What DEI practices rarely address are institutions and structures. 

Example: Our school has been a constant cycle of various forms of DEI training that accelerated after George Floyd's murder. We recently hired a new Head of School - a cis, White, male alum. The trustee committee that hired him was laudably diverse and trained in bias and all that, but in the end, they did the most expected thing ever and hired the straight, White guy whom they were comfortable with rather than really shaking up our institution. We spend a great deal of money on various projects and window appeal, when we could be expanding scholarships. We tweak our language all the time, we try and bring in diverse faculty and students, but many of our basic institutions don't change. This is especially true of the world at large. 

There is, I think, a very real, emotional appeal to knowing the shibboleths of inclusive language, but one that doesn't actually change people's minds or the world's practices. It's a self-congratulatory exercise. (It's also incredibly burdensome for teachers of good faith to try and keep up with constantly changing expectations, but that's a separate issue.)

What's more, I think it naturally excludes those who are not attuned to language. The "education gap" in DEI practices isn't simply about the elite cultural institutions "indoctrinating" their students. It's about the sort of literate, word-oriented people who go to liberal arts colleges finding their natural métier. There is a selection bias at work here. It's not that you go to Wesleyan and become indoctrinated in "wokeness." The language of "wokeness" naturally appeals to the sort of people who are at Wesleyan.

Our hardest demographic to reach appears to be our White male students. Surprised, right? This is why we call them privileged; they are. And yet, the use of "privilege" as a teaching tool only really works if you're willing to unpack what the word means. If you're a White (or Asian), upper middle class student who does good or even very good academic work, you're not going to feel privileged in the college admissions process compared to a Black athlete. You are!  You most definitely are, when you understand the nuances of language and cultural context in the concept of "privilege." But it doesn't feel that way, and so intellectual concepts run headlong into the brick wall of emotional experience.

This is why calling your average Trumpist "privileged" isn't going to work, and in fact will backfire. Trumpists are typically not people who revel in exploring the nuance of language.

In understanding DEI practices as "etiquette lessons," Yglesias seems intent on grinding his favorite ax. He's denigrating the practice, with what seems like trollish intent. However, if we understand them as etiquette lessons, we might instead focus on the limitations of this work, and find a way to better practices. I'm not at all convinced that this is Yglesias' objective, but I do think it's an interesting lens.

To give a counterexample, I think the concept of "representation" actually does have merit. Seeing interracial or same sex couples in car commercials does change minds precisely because it doesn't exist in the realm of language norms. In fact, the generally more socially liberal attitudes from Gen Z are more likely to be rooted in simply seeing a diversity of people and characters in media than reading Robin DiAngelo.

Monday was MLK Day, and we - as always - did special programming around it. In the past, this next week has been a time when someone will write racist graffiti somewhere in the school. Correlation is not causation, but it does suggest that we aren't reaching precisely the people we need to be with current "best practices." The use of affinity groups will hopefully build resilience and emotional well being in our students of color; they should feel like the belong here. That's the goal.

Are we doing the most efficacious things to make that a reality? I have my doubts. 

Tuesday, January 17, 2023

Covid Denialism

 I mean, why not? We have people denying that Trump lost, that tax cuts cause deficits, that the earth is round...so why not deny that Covid was really "that bad"?

It seems roughly 1,300,000 more Americans died during the pandemic. Whether they died precisely from Covid isn't really the point. The pandemic was an event that impacted overall public health in ways that were deadlier than all other wars America ever fought. 

What I really can't understand is how motivated reasoning - which I admit is a very powerful force - could be so strong that it requires people to deny that Covid was really, really bad. Why, exactly, are they motivated to deny it?

Monday, January 16, 2023

Martin Luther King Was A Hated Radical Who Wanted To Redistribute Wealth

 Let's keep that in mind today, as Republicans try and turn him into a justification for overturning voting rights, affirmative action and any form of wealth redistribution.

Matt Yglesias and Scott Lemieux make the same point.

Sunday, January 15, 2023

Don't Even Engage

 Jon Chait points out how the recent revelations that Joe Biden - like many former presidents and vice-presidents - had retained classified documents is "pure manna for Trump's defenders." He notes that Trump's defense is never "the charges against me are false," so much as "everybody does it; it's not a crime."

The issue with the documents in Mar A Lago is not their existence. At the time of this story, there were a  number of articles about how every outgoing president has this issue. The National Archives discovers missing documents, asks Obama or Bush or Clinton about it, and the documents are found and returned. Classified can mean a lot of things, and there is an argument that both the classification system and the transition periods between presidencies needs some improvement. It's clearly a flawed and busted system.

However, that is not the problem with Trump. The problem there is he actively hid them from the Archives and then refused access. Biden, obviously, found the documents and then turned them over. As Chait notes, Trump's crime is not having the documents, it's hiding them.

This distinction will be mostly lost on Trumpistan, either cognitively or via confirmation bias. Subtle distinctions are not really a priority among the Rightist faction in American politics. Even if they were, everything is always a persecution of Trump and/or Republicans. A Democrat lied once, so what's the big deal about George Santos?

Biden's media team has been very impressive so far in his presidency, and it seems to still be on target. Accept the special counsel, work with them, find all the documents. Don't engage with Jim Jordan. Let Jack Smith do his work. The fact that the investigation into Biden won't lead to indictments and Trump's could will set off the howler monkeys. So be it. Ignore it. 

There's an old joke:

Wise man: Never argue with fools, for you will become foolish.
Loud man: That's ridiculous, how can you say that?!
Wise man: You're right, I withdraw my statement.

There is no winning "arguments" with Trumpistan. The arguments are not made in good faith to illuminate and establish "truth."

Don't even start.

Saturday, January 14, 2023

George Santos vs A Head Of Lettuce

 The news around George Santos seems to be getting worse, like outright criminality worse. It feels very similar to Trump running a vanity campaign, actually winning and then having all that criming brought to light.

Back in 2020, Kevin McCarthy actually signed off on denying Marjorie Traitor Greene her committee assignments, because she was seen - rightly - as a QAnon nutjob. Now, she's an important ally and the idea that the GOP would expel an actual criminal from their caucus is rightly seen as absurd.

Maybe Santos gets arrested and that forces the GOP to expel him, but I doubt it. Recall that Al Franken and some Congresswoman I'm forgetting resigned over somewhat mild but very real improprieties. Republicans almost never do. Some would frame this as Democrats having no spine, but it really demonstrates which party has a moral backbone.

Thursday, January 12, 2023

NY Times Pitchbot

 Doug J at Balloon Juice took over Twitter with his NY Times Pitchbot, where he mimics the objective to the point of insanity style of the NY Times. One his themes was the "...in this Ohio diner..." The gag ran like this: "In many people's eyes, the January 6th insurrection was an attack on our democratic institutions, in this Ohio diner, people aren't so sure."

Basically this was the "Cleetus Safaris" that coastal writers went on to plumb the depth of Trumpistan.

Anyway, the Times is back on their shit.

They interviewed 12 Trump supporters and - lo and behold - they turn out to still be Trump supporters. Reading their world view is, of course, profoundly depressing. The woman who like Trump, except for - what for it - his embrace of vaccines. The guy who think Democrats are "doing inflation."  The idea that Democrats are unified and move in lockstep towards socialism (have they heard of Joe Manchin?). Seven of the twelve believed that the 2020 election was stolen. The fact that people go to Trump rallies and not Biden rallies proves that Trump won. The January 6th Committee just made them believe even more that Trump had nothing to do with it.

The leaps of faith, the tortured logic, the cherry-picking...it's all there. There is no winning over Trumpists, and what's more I don't think anyone except Andrew Yang types think you can. You can only defeat them again and again until they quit politics altogether and go back to wherever they sprang from.

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Whataboutism

 The current iteration of the GOP - especially the Chaos Caucus in the House - is remarkably corrupt. It runs from potential pedophilia to supporting January 6th to the more mundane conflict of interest to the esoteric insanity of whatever the hell George Santos is.

However, the rule of government are many and varied, so we have instances like Biden having some classified documents in his office after he left the Vice Presidency. As many have noted, this is both common and a little troublesome. There is, of course, a major difference between having these documents and hiding these documents - as Trump did. There is, of course, a major difference between the nature of these documents and the secrets they contain. 

That won't matter to the howler monkeys in the Rightist media establishment and their collaborators in elected office. They will point to the fact that Biden (and really all presidents and vice presidents) have had classified documents found improperly in their possession as a false equivalency to what Trump did and therefore excuse Trump and accuse the DOJ of a political witch hunt.

I ate at the local dinner (I know, I know) where they had a story about Ned Lamont's swearing in as governor. Unsolicited, the guy next to me began to rant about how much money Lamont had made as governor and how "they're all crooks."

No. They aren't. Lamont's money is old and substantial. He makes money because he has money. He almost certainly has not abused his office to enrich himself. However, you have to be at least a little rich to run and hold office. The idea that all elected officials are crooks works because, yeah, a few of them are. This allows people paint all politicians as fundamentally the same. There is no difference between Jim Jordan investigating Hunter Biden's laptop and Adam Schiff investigating Trump's efforts to blackmail President Zelensky. There is no difference between accusing Anthony Fauci of creating Covid in a Chinese lab and accusing Trump of personally enriching himself with Federal funds. The absence of evidence for one set of accusations and the abundance of evidence for the other is irrelevant.

I'm not sure how we move beyond a political landscape where we indulge in constant Whataboutism. It's a direct line to Trumpism.

Tuesday, January 10, 2023

It's Coming Back

 I feel like we are on the precipice of a really bad Covid surge. Covid is rampaging through China, which means more variants will mutate and some of those might get around vaccines. Given how weak the Sinovac vaccine is, though, perhaps it won't be especially damaging.

We had Covid - perhaps the new variant here in New England - burn through our household this Christmas. Three of the five people in our house got sick, despite efforts to mitigate it and despite everyone being some degree of vaccinated and having acquired immunity. For me, it was barely a 24 hour cold; for my son it lingered for a few days, and my wife felt like hammered whale shit for several days. However, it was not a potent as the Delta wave that sent me to the hospital.

We are entering that stage of Covid, where it really does mimic the flu. It's going to kill some people, especially those who are at risk and don't keep up with their vaccinations. 

What was striking to me is that hospitalizations here in Connecticut have reached their third highest peak since September 2020 (apparently they don't trust the numbers from that spring). Deaths, however, have not really changed. That's likely the new normal.

Monday, January 9, 2023

Immigration Is Broken And We Can't Fix It

 Erik Loomis takes the dependably left wing view of restricted immigration policy, which is odd, because it's at odds with his position as a labor leftist. (Labor tends to support immigration restrictions.)

There is no doubt that America's immigration system is broken. There are legitimate reasons for people to show up at America's borders wanting asylum. The complete breakdown of civic order in the countries of Central America is real and distressing. It is also somewhat different from normal asylum procedures, whereby a dissident needs to flee a country because their political views will get them killed. In this case, lawlessness itself is the threat. 

"Open borders" is one of the most ridiculous self-owns - up there with Defund the Police - that the left has come up with since 2016. Both feed in to the concept that Democrats have no agenda for public order. It's not accurate - no one in the policy realm really means completely open border or to get rid of police - but it doesn't need to be accurate. Commenters in Loomis' post snidely say that Biden is trying to win Fox News voters with this. That's not accurate. The Rio Grande valley has moved AWAY from Democrats because they are shouldering the burden of historic asylum seekers flooding the border.

There has to be a legislative fix to this system that rewards anyone for showing up to an overburdened asylum system that cannot process these claims for years. The idea that the Chaos Caucus would allow ANY progress on immigration is absurd. In fact, even in a perfect world with 218/60/1/5 (House, Senate, White House, Supreme Court), I have no idea what the solution is.

Honestly, the best I can come up with is sending in military peacekeepers to restore order in Nicaragua and Honduras. Anyone want to guess whether Loomis and others would support that, given America's history in Latin America?

UPDATE: The Biden plan is actually not nearly as bad as Loomis makes it out to be.

Sunday, January 8, 2023

This Seems Bad

 The decision not to renew the contract of an Art History professor because she showed a respectful image of Muhammad is just...weird. Up and down the story...weird.

I agree with Robert Farley that this is an example of how administrators are not the friends or allies of the teaching faculty, especially vulnerable adjuncts. It's not that bad in our small school, but there is an element where - as a teacher - you wonder if the purpose of administration is to support the teaching, coaching and mentoring that the bulk of the faculty do, or whether the faculty exist to serve the whims of the administration.

The Hamline incident is one where the teacher followed all possible best practices with trigger warnings to a non-offensive painting. She gave every student the opportunity to opt out. One student was outraged. One. Who apparently felt it was sprung on her because she clearly wasn't paying attention or reading the syllabus. That was enough to kick in the administrator's basic impulse: Better to have conflict with a faculty member than a student or parent.

The idea that students should be comfortable is ridiculous. Education is about leaning into your discomfort, your ignorance, your inexperience. We have conflated "comfort" with "safety." Every student should feel safe but not "safe." 

Ugh, we are going to have a dozen Jon Chait columns on this, too. 

McCarthy And Trump

 Trump was instrumental in getting the Chaos Caucus to cave and allow McCarthy to become Speaker. In a House caucus that was literally at each others' throats Friday night, there is no unifying figure. Trump remains - by default - the one figure in the GOP who can unite the Chaos Caucus and white supremacists with the corporate wing who just want to cut each others' taxes.

For all the sage predictions of Trump's demise and the occasional principled stand against him by people like Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, it's worth remembering that the latter two are no longer in Congress, because they opposed Trump.

So, Trump runs - likely under active indictment on multiple fronts - and that means Biden likely runs, too.

Saturday, January 7, 2023

Monday

 McCarthy won his speakership, but the House adjourned until Monday to pass the new rules package. This could be significant, if enough "moderate" Republicans balk at these changes. The House now "exists" as all members have been sworn in, staff can be paid and offices moved into. The leverage over a deadline has passed.

There is no reason for any other faction of Republicans to abide by McCarthy's deal. The bad blood created by Gaetz and Boebert isn't likely to dissipate over the weekend.

Moderates - if any still exist - could defeat the Rebels' rules package, then preserve McCarthy's speakership with a deal with Democrats over the debt ceiling. For whatever reason, Democrats have not taken a debt default seriously, and no one outside their caucus seems to understand why.

This is an opportunity to head off future debt crises and Democrats should look to do that.

Friday, January 6, 2023

Apparently, He Can

 So, it looks like Kevin McCarthy will become "Speaker." His concessions to the Chaos Caucus will basically neuter the power of the office and set the stage for a dysfunctional House, almost certainly a government shutdown and possibly even a sovereign debt crisis. Yay, Kevin! Good job!

My question at this point is about the rule changes that will allow the Chaos Caucus the opportunity for endless fuckery. My understanding is that those rule changes are the linchpin of the concessions McCarthy made. My other understanding - which I concede might be wrong - is that all rule changes require an up or down vote in the House.

What's to prevent a moderate faction from torpedoing those rule changes? Especially some that threaten a debt crisis? There is also the concession to pass a balanced budget. Any balanced budget would require incredibly painful cuts in things like education, elderly benefits and possibly even defense. Why would a rep from a Biden district commit political suicide like that?

I can see an outcome where McCarthy becomes Speaker, but the House reverts to chaos almost immediately. Imagine the caterwauling if McCarthy promises the Chaos Caucus these rule changes...and then the rule changes fail.

Can He Ever Get There?

 Can McCarthy get to a majority of voting members? Ever?

I'm going to assume that Gaetz and Boebert are so locked into their anti-McCarthy posture that they will never, ever vote for him, no matter the concessions. Biggs and Gosar seem also pretty unmovable. I'm guessing there's at least one more holdout who will never budge.

McCarthy could benefit from some of the Taliban 20 voting present, but he needs 13 of the holdouts to switch, otherwise, Hakeem Jeffries becomes Speaker. McCarthy has to reach 213, with the rest voting present.

I just don't see how the math and the politics work at this point. How do these morons climb down from the position that they've taken? How do you gum up everything for days and then say, "All good!"

Ultimately, I think Scalise becomes Speaker for this very reason, but - man - it would be awesome to see Democrats merge with five Republicans to create a unity coalition, however unstable that might be.

Thursday, January 5, 2023

It's Going To Get Worse

 It looks like Kevin McCarthy is making exactly the sort of concessions that will make things exponentially worse in terms of running the House.  In addition to ceding control of the Rules committee to a bunch of arsonists, he will allow for debate and additions on bills that will make it basically impossible to pass anything. Perhaps the saving grace would be allowing a single House member to call for a new snap election for Speaker. If we reach an impasse and the government teeters on chaos, the so-called "Problem Solver" caucus could oust McCarthy and put in Fred Upton or Larry Hogan to at least keep the lights on.

Not sure how much chaos we will have to endure between now and then.

UPDATE: Bwahahahahahaha

UPDATE 2: Bwahahahahahaha

UPDATE 3: Bwahahahahahaha

Wednesday, January 4, 2023

Fantasy Land

 Jon Chait advances a somewhat different take on the GOP Civil War unfolding in the House. His argument is that, perversely, the House GOP seems to think it has MORE power during divided government than when it has full control. During Democratic administrations, the House GOP routinely tries to force crises, government shutdowns and even debt defaults to try and force Democratic presidents to do exactly the opposite of what they want.

I hadn't really thought of it in those terms, but he's right. Jon Jordan and Matt Gaetz weren't asking for Trump to do anything radically crazy, aside from repealing the Affordable Care Act. When it failed in the Senate, the Freedom Caucus just shut up and did nothing. We did not see the sort of manic nonsense that we are seeing from the 20 opponents to McCarthy's speakership.

McCarthy might still become Speaker, but if he does, the Chaos Caucus is going to force him to shutdown the government and default on our sovereign debt to repeal...I dunno, Critical Race Theory in kindergartens or some crazy shit. They would never do this to a Republican president.

Reagan's so-called 11th Commandment was "Thou Shalt Not Speak Ill of Another Republican." The "Conservative" movement has been largely hierarchical and obedient to its leadership. What's happening now is a direct violation of a basic tenet of the post 1976 Republican Party, but their goals are in keeping with the post 1994 GOP. 


Tuesday, January 3, 2023

Clown Car Caucus

 It's difficult to see how Kevin McCarthy gets to 218 votes to become Speaker. The recalcitrant fools in the Clown Car Caucus (Chaos Caucus) are simply amped up versions of the broader GOP: they exist to feed their grievances; they have not legitimate or popular governing issues; they are simply in DC to preen for Rightist media.

There are three constituencies impacted by this chaos.

First, the GOP will spend the next two years reminding everyone how fucking nuts they are. They will be unable to do anything substantive, creating more chaos in a caucus with unrealistic ideas that somehow Hunter Biden's laptop will make Trump president again. They will impeach Biden, likely over Afghanistan, and it will be yet another shitshow upon shitshow. Sober minded members of the GOP - the few that remain - realize this for the act of self-immolation that it is.

Second, Democrats are going to eat this up. For all the reasons this will look chaotic and incompetent from the POV of the non-Fox poisoned American, Democrats will be in the firm "point and laugh" mode. GOP extremism will remain front and center in American minds leading into 2024.

Finally, there is the broader Republic. How will we survive the chaos of this House? Ideally, we would need to pass two budgets between now and 2024, but that is almost impossible to happen. Perhaps we can get enough continuing resolutions and debt ceiling stop gaps to prevent a complete meltdown, and perhaps the very weakness of McCarthy will enable about six Republicans to cross the aisle to keep the lights on.

Every GOP House since 1994 has been a suicide bomber in the heart of America's fiscal obligations. Maybe this time they blow it up, but more likely they blow themselves up.

UPDATE: At some point, will Democrats unify with a handful of Republicans to make someone like former Maryland governor Larry Hogan Speaker? The Speaker need not be a sitting member of the House. OTOH, Hogan would be basically a rump GOP/Democratic Speaker, with the idea being that basic bills will pass the House, but no more.

Damar Hamlin

 Last night saw one of those awful moments on live television, when Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field. While everyone loves to play online doctor, several actual doctors say that it certainly looked like commotio cordis - a rare event when someone's heart is hit at the precise millisecond that interrupts a person's heart beat. The hit Hamlin took wasn't especially vicious, it was simply at the exact wrong time in the exact wrong place.

Needless to say, this inspired the worst and the best in people.

Noted Righist troll, Charlie Kirk, led a phalanx of anti-vax idiots to propose that Hamlin's cardiac arrest was because of vaccines. NFL players are screened by EKG as part of their physicals. There is no evidence that vaccines cause any sort of cardiac problems, though there is evidence that actual Covid does. Regardless of the evidence, the troll army storms full bore into any event, any circumstance with their axes ready to gring.

Meanwhile, among real people, Hamlin had a Go-Fund me for a charity he runs that gives toys to underprivileged kids. He had hoped to raise $2,500. Since last night, he has raised over $3,000,000 from ordinary people who just wanted to help. 

Hamlin is in stable but critical condition, as one would expect after having his heart stopped. Back in 2021, Christian Eriksen, one of the best soccer players in the world, suffered a cardiac arrest on the field at the Euros. Similarly to Hamlin, CPR was administered and AED was used to get his heart started again. Eriksen made a full recovery and with the help of a pacemaker played in the World Cup last month. Hopefully, Hamlin makes a full recovery and is able to decide for himself where his future lies.

Monday, January 2, 2023

Crashing The Clown Car

 Kevin McCarthy just wants to put on his Big Boy Pants and become Speaker. That appears to be an unlikely outcome. The GOP House Caucus is such a festering bag of lunatics and QAnon adherents that we are headed to a situation where McCarthy will make compromise after compromise with moral sewers like Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Traitor Greene to win their votes and he still likely won't get them.

If McCarthy can't secure the votes, how many ballots will it take before we get ten or so Republicans who will back someone like Liz Cheney who could win the election if every Democrat and five Republicans agree? But are there five Republicans in the House who aren't insane and tethered to Donald Trump's nutsack?

In a sane world. the average American voter would reject the chaos that comes with electing Republicans to control anything. We do not live in a sane world.

Sunday, January 1, 2023

Missing The Point

 There was a moment in the 2020 presidential campaign when someone created a meme of Trump as Thanos with the line "I am inevitable" attached. Now, anyone who saw the damned movie and knew anything about pop culture would realize what a glorious self-own this was. 

A) Thanos was the villain, and what's more he was almost a caricature of a militant leftist eco-terrorist.
B) Thanos was NOT, in fact, inevitable, as he dies almost seconds after that line.
C) Thanos was literally fighting CAPTAIN AMERICA.

But you see this all the time with Rightists who appropriate the villain as a hero. In fact, Putin just created Rings of Power that he gave to his cronies. If you have any memory of Lord of the Rings, that basically makes him Sauron. And - in case you forgot - Sauron was the villain...who lost. What makes the irony deeper is that Ukrainians have been referring to Russians as orcs since the invasion began.

There's this weird impulse to become the villain, maybe because it's "pwning the libtards." We've seen it in Elon Musk's embrace of some of the worst people on the internet. Why do that? Why actively pretend (or not even pretend) to be a villain? Why revel in other's disgust and discomfort?

In describing Trumpism, Adam Serwer issued one of those bon mots that resonates because of the deep truth revealed in a few simple words: "The cruelty is the point." While that was certainly true of Trump, it seems to be part of the glib, online Right's persona as well. Other people calling you a troll or a misogynist is just a sign that you're "edgier" or "tougher" than the "snowflake" who's pointing out that you're just an awful person.

The willing blindness to the obvious messages in pop culture are part of a deeper blindness for cultural standards. The "left" is presumed to be the "culture warriors" yet it is the Right that can't put down their cudgels and pikes.