I agree with Martin Longman that this piece by Thomas Meaney is a steaming pile of shit.
Meaney has been a Ukraine doomer all along and now - this time, for real, no seriously - his pessimistic take is the Very Serious One we should all listen to.
Will Ukraine win back large swaths of territory with its spring offensive? Hard to say, but the idea that "entrenched Russian troops" will fare as well as entrenched Ukrainian troops seems to ignore the basic dynamic of morale and the will to fight that Ukraine has shown and Russia has not. Fixed fortifications do not have a stellar track record in the last few centuries.
Additionally, imperial powers trying to conquer a people who don't wish to be conquered have a very poor track record. Ukraine is fighting a war of survival, Russia a war of choice. Ignoring that should disqualify you from predicting the future of the Ukraine War.
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