Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Thursday, July 13, 2023

Not Now, Volodymyr

 Josh Marshall makes a pretty compelling - in fact airtight - case for why admitting Ukraine into NATO right now would be borderline insane. As NATO is a defensive alliance, Ukraine joining now would begin a war between NATO and Russia. As Marshall notes, you can understand why Kiev, Warsaw and the Baltic States might like that to happen. The Russian threat is real to them and tangible to Ukraine. 

It's difficult to think why Ukraine would even demand it. They can't possibly think they would be admitted. In fact, the demand itself would seem to incentivize Russia to prolong the war. While "we have to invade Ukraine because of NATO" was a bullshit casus belli, it's not an unimportant Russian goal to keep NATO away from its borders. 

It's also difficult to see how Ukraine's joining NATO but not evoking Article V (drawing the rest of the alliance into war) would materially improve things for Ukraine. 

So, I 100% understand why Biden and Germany and likely France all did not want to admit Ukraine this year, I just can't figure out why Ukraine even asked.

No comments: