Jon Chait points out something that seems pretty clear from the historical record: there is a lag between the actual economic recovery and whether the "in party" gets credit for it. He points to Clinton's re-election in '96 as an example of journalists looking at the mixed economic measures of 1993-95 and extrapolating them into '96, despite the fact that we now know that the economy was starting to supercharge during those years.
Think about the jobs report that comes out every month. Those numbers are almost always revised several months later when we have better data. So there are two things at play. First, journalists - especially economic journalists - tend not to notice change until it's already happened. Second, voters are wary that what feels like good news is actually good news after living through tough times.
What does this mean for 2024? I do believe that this election will likely turn on Dobbs and January 6th, but a crappy economy would complicate that. It would give Republicans a chance to deflect and divert from the fact that they are a party of theocratic authoritarians.
If we are in a broadly shared prosperity by next fall, Biden and Democrats could do very well. Of course, Republicans won't believe that we are, but that's OK. Democrats aren't getting any crossover votes from entrenched Republicans.
The question is one of a disconnect. The White House had decided to go all-in on Bidenomics. They feel that we are entering a period of robust and widespread growth and they want to take credit for it, the way Obama did when he coopted the epithet "Obamacare". If people feel pretty good about their economic situation, then this message will resonate with voters, especially swing voters. It will also make Trump's increasingly unhinged ranting about the US being a failed state look bizarre. Conversely, if the economy stalls and sputters for some reason, Democrats will look out of touch.
Generally speaking, I will trust the data and instincts of the Biden team over the drooling ravings of Mango Mussolini.
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