I don't usually dive into the comments at LGM, but Paul Campos notes that threads pertaining to the Israeli-Palestinian war have gotten pretty toxic. I've certainly noticed this on Twitter (still not calling it X). There's been a running and frankly surreal debate about whether Israeli babies were decapitated by Hamas fighters or merely had their heads blown off. Seriously, that's the question. That of course devolves into "but what about Palestinian babies' heads?"
There is a very real and serious debate going on about Israel's response to the atrocities last weekend. Hamas needs to be reduced to levels where they can neither dominate Gaza nor threaten Israel. The insolvable problem is that you can't eradicate Hamas without killing Palestinian civilians. As I argued earlier, Hamas needs and wants dead civilians. Their actions were designed to kill Palestinians as much as Israelis. Israel can kill 75% of Hamas and it will reconstitute itself in a few years.
The intractability of the Palestinian question is symbolized by the fact that Egypt won't let Palestinians leave Gaza either. There simply is no solution to a problem if you take each sides' bedrock position. There is no solution for Palestinians that does not include a Palestinian state, presumably including East Jerusalem. For Hamas, the very existence of Israel is illegitimate. There is no solution for Israel that does not include 100% guarantees that Israel will be safe and maintain control of Jerusalem. For Likud, there is no solution that does not include control of most of the West Bank.
The result is that you have a war being fought by two sides that have no potential for peace until the other is destroyed. Add to that the overwhelming capability of the IDF and the concentrated population center of Gaza and you have a very, very unpleasant situation.
What seems to be lost - especially among the sort of campus radicals who have suddenly embraced Hamas - is that war does not follow logic or theory the way you might think outside of the framework of war. Once war starts, it makes its own demands and enforces its own rules. We talk about the "rules of war" but those only exist if each side decides they exist. Hamas killed children and civilians. Israel is responding with actions that are killing children and civilians. Neither thing "should" happen under the rules of war, but again those "rules" are unenforceable.
For the cosseted campus radicals cheering on the "decolonizing" actions of Hamas or the rabid genocidal mutterings of many pro-Israeli Americans, the actual impact and conduct of war is so remote from their experience that this is all just performative posturing. It's actually among Israelis and Palestinians that you see the most nuanced view of this conflict. There are so many voices on both sides that understand that there is no long term peace that does not include a viable Palestinian state. Hamas' actions, however, make that Palestinian state more remote than ever.
The tragedy of this latest act in the longer running tragedy of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is that neither side is going to emerge from this more secure. Palestinians are going to die simply by their proximity to Hamas, not because they agree with them...until the actions of the IDF will convince them that Hamas is right. Israel will squander the moral high ground with every civilian casualty in Gaza. Creating a Palestinian state - even in the West Bank - will be unthinkable and politically untenable.
No one is going to win this war. Israel will "defeat" Hamas by killing many of them and destroying their infrastructure in Gaza, but this will not bring long term peace. Hamas has had a "catastrophic victory" that exceeded their expectations, but this will bring about more death and destruction in Gaza than they can stand.
Shakespeare wrote "Cry 'havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war"/that this foul deed shall smell above the earth/with carrion men, groaning for burial." What the internet tough guys and cosplay revolutionaries don't grasp is that "havoc" and chaos are not foundations to build upon.
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