Josh Marshall theorizes why the head-to-head match up with Trump has been moving in Biden's direction a bit, but also why Biden is not crushing Trump (as he should be in a sane universe).
One of his points is really good:
Four: One thing has become more and more clear to me in recent weeks: a big proportion of the voting population believes it is still unclear who the nominees of each major party will be. That puts a big, big question mark over all of these polls. The absolute reality is that the two nominees are Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Any opinion you have before you realize that central salient fact is liable to change and not especially meaningful.
Most people do not live and die politics. There is a GOP primary. Some people would like there to be a different Democratic candidate than Biden (some of which is tied to the poor polling Biden generally has).
Once they are faced with a choice between Biden and Trump, many will reluctantly vote for Biden. An unenthusiastic vote counts just as much as the rabid support of Cult 45. Many more will crawl over hot lava to vote against Trump.
All of this is true before the possibility of Trump being convicted this spring. If/when that happens, I would guess that Trump's support among those feckless independent/undecided voters will crater.
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