The perilous possibility that American democracy will end next fall would happen because of vibes. There are basically three reasons why Trump might beat Biden: inflation, crime and Gaza.
With inflation, the data is absolutely clear that we have tamed inflation without triggering a recession. I just saw gas prices under $3 a gallon here in Connecticut. The problem is that it doesn't FEEL like inflation is under control.
With crime, we have this story about the massive crime wave that coincided with Biden's election (not the pandemic, of course). Turns out it was largely bullshit, too. Retailers are getting hammered for reasons besides mythical crime rings. Hell, grocery stores lose more money by people accidentally screwing up self-checkout than they do by planned theft, but it's still better for them to layoff cashiers and close struggling retail outlets and then blame it on non-existent crime. Crime is falling but it FEELS like it's getting worse.
Finally, with Gaza, Biden's re-election could come down to Michigan and there are a lot of Arab Americans there. The argument that I saw today was that Biden has been worse than Trump. Yup. Biden has been worse than Trump. That leaves out that Trump greatly escalated drone strikes in Syria that killed - directly, not via Israeli action - thousands of civilians. The number is hard to pin down, but Biden wound down the open-ended war in Afghanistan, which means that America has actively STOPPED killing Muslims. Yet his problematic blank-check support for Israel means that it FEELS like Biden is worse.
There are a lot of troubling aspects of the rise of Trump and Trumpism, but an understated one is how populism destroys the idea of rationally selecting elected officials to work for the good of the country. The key there is "rationally" and we can't do that if we have abandoned actual facts and reasoned choice. There is no universe where Biden is more Islamophobic than Trump. Trump's stated plans for the economy would make inflation measurably worse. His solution for crime is extra-judicial killings.
How the hell is this even a contest?
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