Europe Is Our Only Hope

 There are obviously so many concerns about Trump's assault on American Democracy. This is likely to be a feature of this space for the next three years. However, liberal democracy is not just an American project. We took the lead during and after World War II, but as we see with the emergence of China and rise of Trump, Orban and Erodogan, that progress is not linear nor inevitable. I think in the long run, Americans will not want to live under a dictatorship, but then again, we are pretty stupid.

If there is an entity that can take our mantle of leadership in the fight for liberal democracy globally, it has to be Europe. Krugman does one of his long posts about how the European economy is much stronger than we usually think. The standard measurements of things like GDP per capita don't measure the actual wealth of Europe. What he points out is that Europe has simply made different priorities.

For instance, much of American productivity advantages can be attributed to how many more vacation days Europeans take. That's neither good not bad, but different. Additionally, the US has vaulted ahead in technology, but that technology has also exacerbated wealth inequality. It's not just the Silicon Valley ecosystem of tech millionaires and billionaires, it's the degradation of working class income as it's replaced by automation. America is more "productive" than Europe because we prize that and create technologies that enhance it. Europe tends to focus on things like life expectancy and quality of life. You can't go to Europe and not be impressed with just how...nice it is.

So Europe is not as "rich" as America, but it's still a very wealthy society. However, the very open question is whether Europe is willing to take the steps to replace American global leadership. This would require two big things.

First, they are going to have to integrate more. Krugman touches on this, in that America has innovation ecosystems in places as diverse as Silicon Valley, Austin, Boston and Pittsburgh. Europe doesn't really have centers of innovation - like a biotech hub that serves all of Europe. 

Second, they are going to have to assume some burdens that the US had traditionally borne and that could impact that quality of life balance. Namely, the EU has benefitted from robust (even excessive) US defense spending. The situation in Ukraine and Estonia is a stark reminder that they need to be step it up when it comes to defense spending. Taking nukes off the table, Europe as a whole could crush Russia in a shooting war, but they need to be so strong that Russia won't even risk it, and I think that's an open question.

Especially in the international arena, we are fucked up and broken. Everything that "made America great" has been tarnished, trashed or totaled. It's going to be up to the EU to lead, at least for the rest of the decade.