Who Would A Shutdown Help?

 Yglesias makes the argument that the actual point of a shutdown could be to get Republicans to eliminate the filibuster - a rule that typically makes it hard to impossible for Democrats to govern. Ultimately, I doubt Republicans do that for just that reason. The other issue is how much Republicans are counting on Democrats to save them from the consequences of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Do they want the fig leaf of Democratic opposition to help them escape the draconian cuts to health care? Maybe. Would they cross Trump to do this? Doubtful. Does Trump want to eviscerate ACA and health care? Unclear.

As we are seeing with the fallout from the raid on the Hyundai plant in Georgia, the right hand doesn't know what the far right hand is doing most of the time. So, maybe Trump would be OK with restoring ACA subsidies.

Yglesias kind of waves away the idea that Democratic voters are desperate for some signs of fight from their party. I think that's wrong, and most Democratic rank and file voters are craving some spine from Washington. Right now, governors are the only ones fighting back, mostly because they are the only ones who can on a day to day basis. The budget is the ONE leverage point Democrats have in the minority and they show every sign of blowing it. 

If I were coming up with a list of demands, it would start with outlawing recissions (again). There is zero point in negotiating on a budget if Trump is just going to ignore it and do what he wants with the money.

Any discussion of ACA subsidies cannot under any circumstances be a patch. They have to be made permanent. Pushing the pain off until after the midterm is just idiotic. If it's going to hurt, make it hurt sooner rather than later. 

Demand Congressional approval for National Guard deployments against local wishes.

Then, if you wanted to throw a few "cosmetic" victories like demanding Hegseth or RFK be fired, go for it.

The idea that Democrats would be blamed for shutting down the government when Republicans control all three branches seems a stretch. Yes, Republicans will blame them, but who cares. They are blaming them for Charlie Kirk without a shred of evidence. If you're argument is that we can't do anything because Republicans might say something mean about us, you've lost.

Democrats need to fight in this moment. This is not normal.