A Distraction, Not A Lifeline

 The idea that Trump launched his raid in Venezuela to distract from both the Epstein Files and Jack Smith's testimony about Trump's criminality is a solid theory. I do think, however, that there were a lot of agendas pushing the escalating attacks on Maduro over the last year. Rubio wants regime change in Caracas and Havana. Hegseth wants to watch Delta Force kill people. Trump wants the oil. It is worth noting that Venezuela's oil is of notorious low quality, making it difficult to refine and use productively. However, that subtlety is unlikely to matter to Trump's lizard brain. For instance, rare earths are not "rare" it's just hard to refine them. Still, that fucking moron just heard "rare" and wants to annex Greenland.

As Elliot Morris points out, Americans do not want to go to war in Venezuela. The results are pretty stable, as most Americans remember what happened the last time we invaded a country to install a friendly government. A plurality of Republicans oppose this move as well, especially those who aren't in the MAGA cult.

Morris also noted a few days ago how different the perceptions of Trump are depending on whether you watch Fox News. This is a huge problem in deprogramming people from the MAGA cult. As long as they get this incredibly warped view of reality from Fox, their loyalty to this president will be unchallenged. In the Fox Cinematic Universe, Trump did a cool-assed John Wick-Rambo raid. For the rest of us, the essential impression is that this was tactically impressive and strategically incoherent. Amazing job kidnapping the president of a sovereign country, I guess. What now?

The fundamental question at this moment is whether we really will be putting "boots on the ground." If we are, that requires Congressional approval that I don't think will be forthcoming. Trump will likely ignore this and do it anyway, which creates yet another chapter in our ongoing constitutional crises. 

So, does this distract from the Epstein and Smith news? Yeah, sure. But not in a good way, because people aren't really on board with another example in naive nation building.