Trump is throwing another tantrum. He's pissed that a sovereign country won't bend the knee and cede him Greenland, so he's throwing up tariffs against the entire EU. Krugman points out why this is unlikely to be as effective as he thinks. He makes the point that Trump is completely irrational, and while I largely agree with that, I think there is a rational reason why he's pursuing this: He wants to blow up NATO.
Kelly and others from his first term said that, if reelected, Trump would pull the US out of NATO in his second term. Doing this frontally would engender backlash; if he just pulled us out for no reason, people would question his purpose, even with the craven confines of the GOP caucus. Instead, he picks a stupid fight that itself becomes a loyalty test and then uses that pretext to blow up the Transatlantic Alliance.
Yesterday, stocks dove and bonds rates got very pessimistic about the future. The ultimate weapon the world holds against us is the immense amount of US Treasury bonds that they hold. If they liquidate them, it will hurt, but it will also crater that value of US debt and make it much harder to finance the reckless tax cuts that Trump has passed.
Trump's bluster has backed everyone into their corners, including himself. That's a dangerous place to be. Trump's social media output reeked of flopsweat and desperation, throwing unhinged rants in every direction. His approval ratings continue to tank, even on immigration. The generic ballot is 51-43 among registered voters, but 55-42 among committed voters. That latter number is worth watching, as some MAGA will likely just sit out the midterms in the wake of his continuing shitshow of an administration.
Europe will hopefully show more resolve than they typically do, even if it tips the world and them into an economic slowdown. The alternative might be an unthinkable war.
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