There Is No Base

 Josh Marshall makes an interesting argument that the Democratic Party does not actually have a "base."  Plausible groups that make up a substantial part of the party are Black voters - especially Black women - women in general, college-educated liberals and the Left.

Of course, the Left isn't really a PART of the Democratic Party. Their shriveled avatar is Bernie Sanders, who isn't even a Democrat. They prefer to slam Democrats more than Republicans. They tend to be overwhelmingly young men who are processing their own psychodramas through their own form of identity politics. The final boss of this form of leftist politics is Graham Platner. If you want a succinct synopsis of this argument, check out Jamelle Bouie's video at this post, and you can skip to the 4 minute mark.

Marshall also notes that the two most important voting blocs - Blacks and college educated liberals - are VERY different culturally. Blacks are among the most regular church goers and white liberals are the least. 

Marshall also notes that the while the Republican Party has factions, they are overwhelmingly white, conservative Christians. That gives one group a stranglehold on the party, and conservatism - as a psychological expression - is already hierarchical, so Republicans can fall in line pretty easily, once its evangelical base makes its preferences known.

Trump was able to become the unlikely leader of this faction because he channeled their grievances, not because he was Christian (Jesus wept, he is not) or because of policy, but because he hated all the right people. Once in charge, his positions became the evangelical's positions, because they tend not to be wildly independent in their thinking to begin with. Oh, sure, "I wish he didn't tweet so much" but c'mon. They abandoned their decision making to him once he mocked those they wished to be mocked.

Ideally, the factionalism of the Democratic Party would make it more robust with internal debates that force groups to defend their positions and policies. However, the Terminally Online nature of, well, everything means that factional disputes harden and become permanent wedges. There are people who have made the specific naming of Israeli actions in Gaza "genocide" not just a deeply felt policy position, but their whole personality. If you are a Democrat who is insufficiently in tune with this, you are simply part of a "corrupt" system.

Republicans, meanwhile, just eat Trump's shit and ask for more.

Still - and this is REALLY important - Democrats won more votes than Republicans in 2008, 2012, 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022. Then 2024 happened, which was kind of the fracturing along these lines combined with anger over nominal prices and Covid policy. 

Republicans combine structural advantages based on the House of Representatives and thus the Electoral College that work hand in hand with the servile fealty of their evangelical base. Democrats spend far too much of their ammunition on the circular firing squads.