Monday, April 13, 2020
Saving The Economy
Trump and Republicans say it is their main priority, but I doubt their philosophy or competency will lead them in a direction that will do that. We have a pretty good idea WHAT to do, we just won't do i with Republicans at the helm.
Sunday, April 12, 2020
Jesus, These People
The Trumpists want to get rid of the Post Office now. Anyone want to bet they are buying shares of FedEx and UPS? For decades - really started with a campaign to draft Henry Ford in the 1920s - a certain segment of Americans have barracked for having a businessman as president. That the government should be run "like a business."
While the pandemic proves just how wrong that thinking is, Republicans will double down on it, because that's all they know. A government's job - at least since the 1930s - is to provide a foundation that supports the country as a whole. Hospitals can't justify having too many rooms or ventilators, so the government's job is to back up the system with redundancies. Trump was musing about how it didn't make any sense that hospitals that only have a half dozen ventilators suddenly needed hundreds.
That's because Trump - and really almost the entirety of the modern GOP - doesn't understand why we have a government. Trump IS running the US government like a business, and like one of his businesses, he will just bankrupt it, fire everyone and walk away.
The Post Office is a public good. It exists for everyone, but especially the poorer segments of society. The Republicans have been trying to kill it with unreasonable pension rules for decades. Democrats - like Elizabeth Warren - want to revitalize it by turning it into a financial institution that could replace predatory pay-day loan sharks.
There are a million differences between the Republicans and Democrats for all those coddled fucking anti-Biden idiots. You want another one? There it is.
While the pandemic proves just how wrong that thinking is, Republicans will double down on it, because that's all they know. A government's job - at least since the 1930s - is to provide a foundation that supports the country as a whole. Hospitals can't justify having too many rooms or ventilators, so the government's job is to back up the system with redundancies. Trump was musing about how it didn't make any sense that hospitals that only have a half dozen ventilators suddenly needed hundreds.
That's because Trump - and really almost the entirety of the modern GOP - doesn't understand why we have a government. Trump IS running the US government like a business, and like one of his businesses, he will just bankrupt it, fire everyone and walk away.
The Post Office is a public good. It exists for everyone, but especially the poorer segments of society. The Republicans have been trying to kill it with unreasonable pension rules for decades. Democrats - like Elizabeth Warren - want to revitalize it by turning it into a financial institution that could replace predatory pay-day loan sharks.
There are a million differences between the Republicans and Democrats for all those coddled fucking anti-Biden idiots. You want another one? There it is.
Saturday, April 11, 2020
China
The United States currently has the most cases of Covid-19 and the most deaths according to the source I've been using. Skeptics will point out two things. One, we don't really have an accurate count of who is being killed by this virus. There are both the additional deaths caused by the overloading of the health care systems around the world and the fact that people have likely died of the virus without authorities knowing that it was the virus. The second objection is that China's numbers are almost certainly false.
China screwed up the initial response to Covid-19, though to be fair, they were the first that HAD to deal with it. Since then, most of the sniping between Washington and Beijing has been a continuation of the friction that has existed since Trump's election.
China will also be the laboratory for what happens when we re-open after lockdown. As a result, we need to make sure that the information coming out of China is accurate. I don't have any great ideas about that, but it needs to happen.
Finally, we have good news on a potential vaccine. Usually, it takes over a year to bring a vaccine to bear, but these are not usual times, and I imagine that we will see the vaccine fast-tracked to market. Also, it looks like doctors are coming up with better treatments, like Remdesivir, and various therapies like pronating patients to keep them from being intubated.
As that happens and we hopefully put this plague down, we need to start thinking about the next one, before the usual collective amnesia sets in. Again, that will focus on China. As the article at the link suggests, the "wet markets" are part of the problem, but that term is used a bit too indiscriminately. How can China maintain these markets - which are a vital part of keeping their population fed - and enforce hygiene standards that will stop a future outbreak?
This is a global problem that will require helping China find the resources to solve it. Trump's nativism and his natural impulse to pull up the drawbridge and man the walls simply won't work. Like climate change, pandemic preparedness requires everything Trump doesn't have:
- A respect for experts.
- Multilateral agreements and cooperation with other countries.
- A functioning government.
China screwed up the initial response to Covid-19, though to be fair, they were the first that HAD to deal with it. Since then, most of the sniping between Washington and Beijing has been a continuation of the friction that has existed since Trump's election.
China will also be the laboratory for what happens when we re-open after lockdown. As a result, we need to make sure that the information coming out of China is accurate. I don't have any great ideas about that, but it needs to happen.
Finally, we have good news on a potential vaccine. Usually, it takes over a year to bring a vaccine to bear, but these are not usual times, and I imagine that we will see the vaccine fast-tracked to market. Also, it looks like doctors are coming up with better treatments, like Remdesivir, and various therapies like pronating patients to keep them from being intubated.
As that happens and we hopefully put this plague down, we need to start thinking about the next one, before the usual collective amnesia sets in. Again, that will focus on China. As the article at the link suggests, the "wet markets" are part of the problem, but that term is used a bit too indiscriminately. How can China maintain these markets - which are a vital part of keeping their population fed - and enforce hygiene standards that will stop a future outbreak?
This is a global problem that will require helping China find the resources to solve it. Trump's nativism and his natural impulse to pull up the drawbridge and man the walls simply won't work. Like climate change, pandemic preparedness requires everything Trump doesn't have:
- A respect for experts.
- Multilateral agreements and cooperation with other countries.
- A functioning government.
Friday, April 10, 2020
The Rules Of Trumpistan
There are a few axiomatic rules that you can count on here in Trumpistan:
- Every accusation is a confession.
- If you're trying to determine if something was done out of stupidity or evil intent, flip a coin.
- Never trust a word he says.
- The worst and most stupid explanation usually turns out to be the correct one.
That last one is particularly of interest to me, because of a story that Josh Marshall has been trying to track down at TPM. The basic fact appears to be that PPE, ventilators and other medical equipment that is being ordered by states and hospitals is getting confiscated when it arrives in the country. The assumption is that FEMA was seizing it, and - perhaps, see rule #2 - sending it to the hardest hit areas.
Except the hardest hit areas, are urban centers and Trump doesn't care about cities. Not enough Trump voters there. And those areas continue to assert that they aren't getting the supplies they need.
The are basically three questions.
1) Just how much of these supplies have been confiscated?
2) By whom?
3) And why?
Now let's return to Rule 4 of Trumpistan: The worst and most stupid explanation usually turns out to be the correct one.
Under normal circumstances, one would assume that FEMA or some other entity like HHS was seizing these supplies and sending them where they are most needed, like NY/NJ, Louisiana and Michigan. However, all three of those states (and California and Washington where the seizures were first reported) have Democratic governors. And even Florida has a shipment of thermometers seized.
Since it's Trumpistan, there is no telling who seized these supplies and for what purpose.
It's worth recalling Jared Kushner's statement that the federal emergency stockpile was "theirs" and not the states. We have a situation where states were told to fend for themselves, then the Feds come in and seize their supplies anyway.
It's impossible not to entertain the possibility that Trump and/or Kushner is using their ability to seize medical supplies for their personal or political advantage. Trump is systematically firing Inspector Generals who might discover if this is being done for corrupt purposes.
And why wouldn't it be? Trump sought to bend the Justice and State Departments to his re-election needs. He was impeached for that, but his acquittal was basically a green light to keep doing crimes to stay in office.
Obviously, until we know the answers to the first two questions, we can't know that there is any corruption going on. We do know that corruption is the currency of Trumpistan. "Is it irresponsible to speculate? It's irresponsible not to."
- Every accusation is a confession.
- If you're trying to determine if something was done out of stupidity or evil intent, flip a coin.
- Never trust a word he says.
- The worst and most stupid explanation usually turns out to be the correct one.
That last one is particularly of interest to me, because of a story that Josh Marshall has been trying to track down at TPM. The basic fact appears to be that PPE, ventilators and other medical equipment that is being ordered by states and hospitals is getting confiscated when it arrives in the country. The assumption is that FEMA was seizing it, and - perhaps, see rule #2 - sending it to the hardest hit areas.
Except the hardest hit areas, are urban centers and Trump doesn't care about cities. Not enough Trump voters there. And those areas continue to assert that they aren't getting the supplies they need.
The are basically three questions.
1) Just how much of these supplies have been confiscated?
2) By whom?
3) And why?
Now let's return to Rule 4 of Trumpistan: The worst and most stupid explanation usually turns out to be the correct one.
Under normal circumstances, one would assume that FEMA or some other entity like HHS was seizing these supplies and sending them where they are most needed, like NY/NJ, Louisiana and Michigan. However, all three of those states (and California and Washington where the seizures were first reported) have Democratic governors. And even Florida has a shipment of thermometers seized.
Since it's Trumpistan, there is no telling who seized these supplies and for what purpose.
It's worth recalling Jared Kushner's statement that the federal emergency stockpile was "theirs" and not the states. We have a situation where states were told to fend for themselves, then the Feds come in and seize their supplies anyway.
It's impossible not to entertain the possibility that Trump and/or Kushner is using their ability to seize medical supplies for their personal or political advantage. Trump is systematically firing Inspector Generals who might discover if this is being done for corrupt purposes.
And why wouldn't it be? Trump sought to bend the Justice and State Departments to his re-election needs. He was impeached for that, but his acquittal was basically a green light to keep doing crimes to stay in office.
Obviously, until we know the answers to the first two questions, we can't know that there is any corruption going on. We do know that corruption is the currency of Trumpistan. "Is it irresponsible to speculate? It's irresponsible not to."
Thursday, April 9, 2020
The Hollow State
It's going to be a Depression level economic event. While certain actors like the Federal Reserve have taken positive steps and the government is no longer shackled to 19th century ideas like Hoover was, the fact is it's going to get grim for a lot of people.
The last large assistance package from the federal government was considered a down-payment. The direct cash payments were...OK. The real aid was in the form of unemployment insurance. That is the automatic stabilizer built in after the last Great Depression. But the job losses have been so sudden and so profound, the whole system has broken down.
You combine this with two trends: a reduction in the size and competency of state and federal governments and the philosophically sclerotic position of the Republican Party. The contempt for both the poor and a functioning safety net was politically manageable when unemployment was around 3%; it is simply unsustainable at 20%.
The campaign slogan for Democrats every election should be "Elect a Republican; get a recession."
The last large assistance package from the federal government was considered a down-payment. The direct cash payments were...OK. The real aid was in the form of unemployment insurance. That is the automatic stabilizer built in after the last Great Depression. But the job losses have been so sudden and so profound, the whole system has broken down.
You combine this with two trends: a reduction in the size and competency of state and federal governments and the philosophically sclerotic position of the Republican Party. The contempt for both the poor and a functioning safety net was politically manageable when unemployment was around 3%; it is simply unsustainable at 20%.
The campaign slogan for Democrats every election should be "Elect a Republican; get a recession."
Wednesday, April 8, 2020
Yesterday Was Hard
Yesterday, I learned of the death of a friend from Covid-19, followed by the death of John Prine.
Jerry Reveron was hired to be the food service director of our school after we made a multi-million dollar investment into a new, state-of-the-art dining facility. He was a lauded chef and created a food culture in a boarding school - which if you went to boarding school back when I did would have been considered an impossibility. He lived excellence. There's no other way to describe him. He could apparently be a hard man to work for, if you weren't also committed to excellence.
One of the best nights of the year was when we would be invited to dine with the trustees. Jerry would put on a feast that still gets my mouth watering thinking about. He interacted with students and teachers and guests. He talked food with anyone. He taught cooking classes for faculty and students alike. I never knew him as being anything by delightful.
I never obviously knew John Prine. I think people have a John Prine moment, if they're lucky. Aside from Angel from Montgomery, his songs aren't the type to climb Billboard charts. Prine comes from a recommendation from a friend. I can't recall if it was my friend Karen or my sister who first gave me a tape with Prine's songs on it.
His voice was wry and warm, funny and sad. As I said to a friend on Facebook, John Prine was a good musician, a great storyteller and a transcendent humanist. His obvious joy and humor especially in the face of life's absurdities made him a touchstone for people who heard his music. As I said to my sister, John Prine was the guy you hoped would sit next to you at the bar. He'd be funny, he'd be kind, he'd listen, he'd spin a yarn.
The outpouring of grief for Prine was real. He was, for me, a guy I knew for a while a long time ago, whose voice helped me when things were mostly shitty. Re-listening to his music in the wake of his death, I'm even more awestruck with the wisdom in his words that I couldn't see in my 20s.
Two good people that I knew died of this fucking disease yesterday. Multitudes more good people that I didn't know died of this fucking disease yesterday. And it's going to get worse over the next three weeks. New York might be beginning to get better, but the rest of the country is in for a hell of a time. More good people are going to die of this. More good people are going to die of otherwise preventable events because the hospitals are overloaded.
Yesterday was hard. Tomorrow isn't likely to bring respite.
Jerry Reveron was hired to be the food service director of our school after we made a multi-million dollar investment into a new, state-of-the-art dining facility. He was a lauded chef and created a food culture in a boarding school - which if you went to boarding school back when I did would have been considered an impossibility. He lived excellence. There's no other way to describe him. He could apparently be a hard man to work for, if you weren't also committed to excellence.
One of the best nights of the year was when we would be invited to dine with the trustees. Jerry would put on a feast that still gets my mouth watering thinking about. He interacted with students and teachers and guests. He talked food with anyone. He taught cooking classes for faculty and students alike. I never knew him as being anything by delightful.
I never obviously knew John Prine. I think people have a John Prine moment, if they're lucky. Aside from Angel from Montgomery, his songs aren't the type to climb Billboard charts. Prine comes from a recommendation from a friend. I can't recall if it was my friend Karen or my sister who first gave me a tape with Prine's songs on it.
His voice was wry and warm, funny and sad. As I said to a friend on Facebook, John Prine was a good musician, a great storyteller and a transcendent humanist. His obvious joy and humor especially in the face of life's absurdities made him a touchstone for people who heard his music. As I said to my sister, John Prine was the guy you hoped would sit next to you at the bar. He'd be funny, he'd be kind, he'd listen, he'd spin a yarn.
The outpouring of grief for Prine was real. He was, for me, a guy I knew for a while a long time ago, whose voice helped me when things were mostly shitty. Re-listening to his music in the wake of his death, I'm even more awestruck with the wisdom in his words that I couldn't see in my 20s.
Two good people that I knew died of this fucking disease yesterday. Multitudes more good people that I didn't know died of this fucking disease yesterday. And it's going to get worse over the next three weeks. New York might be beginning to get better, but the rest of the country is in for a hell of a time. More good people are going to die of this. More good people are going to die of otherwise preventable events because the hospitals are overloaded.
Yesterday was hard. Tomorrow isn't likely to bring respite.
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
Using The Levers
Jon Chait is exactly right. As of this moment, the Republican Party is not desperate for additional economic stimulus, but in very short order they will be. ANY additional "must pass" legislation must come with a vigorous and enforceable system for remoting voting in November.
Republicans are increasingly hostile to the idea of democracy. There is simply no other way to put it. They have relied ever more increasingly on vote suppression and voter purges. What we are seeing right now is the terrible impact the virus is having on urban, poor communities of color. As far as the GOP is concerned...that's fine. They literally don't give a shit that New York is suffering. But it WILL come to their states. Florida and Georgia are discovering that now, and Texas figures to be close behind. You have to think that these megachurches will become little Ground Zeroes for spread.
When that happens, Democrats have to fight every impulse that some of them have to "meet in the middle." They need more people like Warren and Harris and others who are already realizing the balance of power is shifting back to the party with a plan. Focusing on securing a free and fair election in November is critically important. As we are seeing right now, having an incompetent reality TV star as president is a really dangerous idea.
Trump will lose a free and fair election, so he is invested in preventing one from happening. Democrats need to make that their top priority, even more than stimulating the economy.
Republicans are increasingly hostile to the idea of democracy. There is simply no other way to put it. They have relied ever more increasingly on vote suppression and voter purges. What we are seeing right now is the terrible impact the virus is having on urban, poor communities of color. As far as the GOP is concerned...that's fine. They literally don't give a shit that New York is suffering. But it WILL come to their states. Florida and Georgia are discovering that now, and Texas figures to be close behind. You have to think that these megachurches will become little Ground Zeroes for spread.
When that happens, Democrats have to fight every impulse that some of them have to "meet in the middle." They need more people like Warren and Harris and others who are already realizing the balance of power is shifting back to the party with a plan. Focusing on securing a free and fair election in November is critically important. As we are seeing right now, having an incompetent reality TV star as president is a really dangerous idea.
Trump will lose a free and fair election, so he is invested in preventing one from happening. Democrats need to make that their top priority, even more than stimulating the economy.
Monday, April 6, 2020
Germany
This graph is helpful for explaining why Germany's numbers look so good. Because they are testing just about everyone, they know everyone who is infected. Since many people have only mild or no symptoms, that gives a representative sample. That's one reason why Germany's mortality rate is so low. The deaths are out of a much larger number of infected.
However, the overall numbers are lower, too, because they have a much better idea who is infected, so that those people can isolate and not spread the illness.
Germany, Taiwan and South Korea have shown what every other country should have done. They aren't dictatorships locking down whole cities. They are just competent governments who made good choices in a timely manner.
However, the overall numbers are lower, too, because they have a much better idea who is infected, so that those people can isolate and not spread the illness.
Germany, Taiwan and South Korea have shown what every other country should have done. They aren't dictatorships locking down whole cities. They are just competent governments who made good choices in a timely manner.
Sunday, April 5, 2020
Foxes, Hedgehogs and Roadkill
The WaPo takes on the same issue I did the other day: the dearth of competence in the federal government. For good and bad reasons they take a certain "pox on both your houses" approach. It is difficult to plan for everything, and there are certainly examples of Democratic administrations being caught flat-footed. The article notes that the Clinton Administration really wasn't awake to the threat of Sunni Islamic terrorism (although I think that changed a lot after the USS Cole). In order to get the article sourced properly, they talked to a bunch of Bush 43 guys and needed that balance, I guess.
The problem is that this leaves unaddressed the metaphorical elephant in the room, namely the GOP's steady descent into a party that actively loathes experts and government. To the degree that government should exist, it should be to benefit the markets. This has taken its logical apotheosis in Trumpistan, as the Trump administration sees the proper role of government as benefitting Trump personally.
There is the famous metaphor of Foxes and Hedgehogs from Isaiah Berlin. Foxes know a little bit about a lot of things and this leaves them uncertain of what they really know. Hedgehogs know one big thing and use that lens for everything. Ideologues are - by definition - hedgehogs.
To use an example from the Left, Sanders' supporters are all over Twitter yammering on about universal, single payer health care in the age of Covid-19. This has been their focus since 2016. Unfortunately, universal health care exists in China, Italy and Spain and hasn't made a damned bit of difference in stopping the pandemic. What HAS worked are things that South Korea, Taiwan and Germany have done to track, isolate and mitigate. That's a public health competency, not about access or payment of coverage. But if you are a Sanders Hedgehog, you can't really see beyond "if you don't support Bernie, you want people to die of Covid-19."
The problem is that the GOP has become a party of Hedgehogs devoted to the idea that government exists to help markets and nothing more. It's not even libertarian. It's closer to a mercantilist/kleptocratic philosophy. I suppose we have to find room for the other species of hedgehog in the GOP: the evangelicals. The GOP's blinkered ideology has led to famous Trumpisms like "Who knew health care was so complicated?" Or it can be seen in Brian Kemp being surprised that asymptomatic people can shed the virus.
I recently ordered Michael Lewis' The Fifth Risk about how Trump has destroyed the bureaucratic competency of the federal government. It was obviously written before all this happened, but it's been a long-running goal of the GOP to - in Grover Norquist's words - shrink government to the size where you can drown it in a bathtub. Not only has Trump's active assault on what he falsely calls the "Deep State" led to mass resignations, he has staffed his maladministration with varying levels of incompetent "acting" officials. There is no one charge, so suddenly Jared Kushner is in charge.
In fact, the GOP has become so enamored of their one idea and the absolute falseness of anything that does not comply with it, that they have become something other than a hedgehog. If anything, they have become roadkill. They are the possum who freezes in the headlights of an oncoming car.
The problem is that this leaves unaddressed the metaphorical elephant in the room, namely the GOP's steady descent into a party that actively loathes experts and government. To the degree that government should exist, it should be to benefit the markets. This has taken its logical apotheosis in Trumpistan, as the Trump administration sees the proper role of government as benefitting Trump personally.
There is the famous metaphor of Foxes and Hedgehogs from Isaiah Berlin. Foxes know a little bit about a lot of things and this leaves them uncertain of what they really know. Hedgehogs know one big thing and use that lens for everything. Ideologues are - by definition - hedgehogs.
To use an example from the Left, Sanders' supporters are all over Twitter yammering on about universal, single payer health care in the age of Covid-19. This has been their focus since 2016. Unfortunately, universal health care exists in China, Italy and Spain and hasn't made a damned bit of difference in stopping the pandemic. What HAS worked are things that South Korea, Taiwan and Germany have done to track, isolate and mitigate. That's a public health competency, not about access or payment of coverage. But if you are a Sanders Hedgehog, you can't really see beyond "if you don't support Bernie, you want people to die of Covid-19."
The problem is that the GOP has become a party of Hedgehogs devoted to the idea that government exists to help markets and nothing more. It's not even libertarian. It's closer to a mercantilist/kleptocratic philosophy. I suppose we have to find room for the other species of hedgehog in the GOP: the evangelicals. The GOP's blinkered ideology has led to famous Trumpisms like "Who knew health care was so complicated?" Or it can be seen in Brian Kemp being surprised that asymptomatic people can shed the virus.
I recently ordered Michael Lewis' The Fifth Risk about how Trump has destroyed the bureaucratic competency of the federal government. It was obviously written before all this happened, but it's been a long-running goal of the GOP to - in Grover Norquist's words - shrink government to the size where you can drown it in a bathtub. Not only has Trump's active assault on what he falsely calls the "Deep State" led to mass resignations, he has staffed his maladministration with varying levels of incompetent "acting" officials. There is no one charge, so suddenly Jared Kushner is in charge.
In fact, the GOP has become so enamored of their one idea and the absolute falseness of anything that does not comply with it, that they have become something other than a hedgehog. If anything, they have become roadkill. They are the possum who freezes in the headlights of an oncoming car.
Saturday, April 4, 2020
Obama And Trump
There is no secret that Trump sees his entire purpose as overturning and undermining Obama at every step. It's therefore not surprising to see his media management style is also directly opposed to Obama. The Obama Administration famously did not care about the 24 hour news cycle. To them, "winning the day" was pointless; winning the argument was everything.
Trump, of course, is about "winning the day," with predictably disastrous results.
Trump, of course, is about "winning the day," with predictably disastrous results.
In Defense Of Competence
Journalism is the rough draft of history. This is the first attempt I've seen that takes a stab at the dysfunction and errors that have created this crisis.
Trump is exactly who he was when the Republican Party foisted him upon this country. Fundamentally narcissistic, deeply stupid, absolutely incompetent. This is a man who bankrupted companies that provided Americans with football, steaks and gambling. He is presiding over a party that is already deeply suspicious of the idea of public goods and competent governance, and then empowered the farthest reaches of that ideology within his maladministration.
Trump is the problem, sure, but the GOP is equally culpable in all this.
This is a helluva line for a straight news piece:
Of course, members of Cult 45 will dismiss this as fake news, but reality is out there, waiting.
Trump is exactly who he was when the Republican Party foisted him upon this country. Fundamentally narcissistic, deeply stupid, absolutely incompetent. This is a man who bankrupted companies that provided Americans with football, steaks and gambling. He is presiding over a party that is already deeply suspicious of the idea of public goods and competent governance, and then empowered the farthest reaches of that ideology within his maladministration.
Trump is the problem, sure, but the GOP is equally culpable in all this.
This is a helluva line for a straight news piece:
In reality, many of the failures to stem the coronavirus outbreak in the United States were either a result of, or exacerbated by, his leadership.
For weeks, he had barely uttered a word about the crisis that didn’t downplay its severity or propagate demonstrably false information. He dismissed the warnings of intelligence officials and top public health officials in his administration.
At times, he voiced far more authentic concern about the trajectory of the stock market than the spread of the virus in the United States, railing at the chairman of the Federal Reserve and others with an intensity that he never seemed to exhibit about the possible human toll of the outbreak.
Of course, members of Cult 45 will dismiss this as fake news, but reality is out there, waiting.
Friday, April 3, 2020
When America Was Good
I read this story this morning, and when I got to the end, I got choked up. It's about Pararescue Jumpers and a mission to save burned members of a freighter in the middle of the Atlantic. After saving their lives, they were made heroes in Slovenia.
On the Left in particular, there is a tendency to see America's actions abroad through their worst light. Certainly there are plenty of episodes in America's relations in the world that are bad. For every Korea, there's a Vietnam. For every campaign against ISIS, there's an Operation Iraqi Freedom. Yet there is at least an idea that American military might exists to serve a global good. This is perhaps especially true of the US Navy, whose mission it is to keep open shipping lanes around the world. When you get in trouble off the Horn of Africa or in the South China Sea, it will likely be the US Navy that comes to your aid.
Which is why this story is so appalling. We ask American serviceman and women to risk their lives for the national interest and for humanity at large, and at this critical moment, political actors in Washington are shitting on them. And don't think the sailors didn't notice. Their send-off for Capt Crozier should send chills down the spines of the very same political actors who seem to think they can spin their way out of the botching handling of the pandemic.
I watched this interview with Lt Gen Russel Honore, the man who took over the botched response to Hurricane Katrina, and his outrage over how this situation is being handled is incandescent.
I would guess we are about three weeks away from this thing sweeping through the rural and exurban South like Death's Scythe. There was a time we would be helping the world. Now we can't even help ourselves.
On the Left in particular, there is a tendency to see America's actions abroad through their worst light. Certainly there are plenty of episodes in America's relations in the world that are bad. For every Korea, there's a Vietnam. For every campaign against ISIS, there's an Operation Iraqi Freedom. Yet there is at least an idea that American military might exists to serve a global good. This is perhaps especially true of the US Navy, whose mission it is to keep open shipping lanes around the world. When you get in trouble off the Horn of Africa or in the South China Sea, it will likely be the US Navy that comes to your aid.
Which is why this story is so appalling. We ask American serviceman and women to risk their lives for the national interest and for humanity at large, and at this critical moment, political actors in Washington are shitting on them. And don't think the sailors didn't notice. Their send-off for Capt Crozier should send chills down the spines of the very same political actors who seem to think they can spin their way out of the botching handling of the pandemic.
I watched this interview with Lt Gen Russel Honore, the man who took over the botched response to Hurricane Katrina, and his outrage over how this situation is being handled is incandescent.
I would guess we are about three weeks away from this thing sweeping through the rural and exurban South like Death's Scythe. There was a time we would be helping the world. Now we can't even help ourselves.
Thursday, April 2, 2020
Hidden Deaths
The death toll for Covid-19 currently stands at 5113 in the US and 48,407 for the world.
This number is almost certainly a lowball estimate. Josh Marshall's crew at TPM has been examining what he calls the "hidden mortality." The idea is that we have deaths happening that are A) not being attributed to Covid-19 and B) people are dying from OTHER causes that could've been prevented if there hadn't been a pandemic. In time, we will likely be able to look at statistical modeling to determine roughly how many added deaths we have had, but as we have seen with Fox and other conservative media outlets, expert data is routinely ignored.
Let's say we have a "good" outcome of 100,000 deaths from Covid-19. According to what we have seen in Italy and Spain, we can't anticipate that there would be almost another 100,000 hidden deaths from hospital overload. This doesn't account for long term hidden mortality from issues like missing cancer or dialysis treatments, delayed diagnoses of serious illness, and frankly the mental health complications that we are going to see from this.
Some idiot on Twitter was pointing out that most of the deaths in the NYC area were accompanied by other health conditions like asthma, diabetes, cancer or heart and lung disease. His "point" was that Covid-19 wasn't really killing these people, but that their underlying health conditions were. This is precisely the wrong way to think about the health impact of this illness. We are going to be seeing a marked increase in the loss of human life that goes beyond the horror stories we are currently seeing in Queens.
This number is almost certainly a lowball estimate. Josh Marshall's crew at TPM has been examining what he calls the "hidden mortality." The idea is that we have deaths happening that are A) not being attributed to Covid-19 and B) people are dying from OTHER causes that could've been prevented if there hadn't been a pandemic. In time, we will likely be able to look at statistical modeling to determine roughly how many added deaths we have had, but as we have seen with Fox and other conservative media outlets, expert data is routinely ignored.
Let's say we have a "good" outcome of 100,000 deaths from Covid-19. According to what we have seen in Italy and Spain, we can't anticipate that there would be almost another 100,000 hidden deaths from hospital overload. This doesn't account for long term hidden mortality from issues like missing cancer or dialysis treatments, delayed diagnoses of serious illness, and frankly the mental health complications that we are going to see from this.
Some idiot on Twitter was pointing out that most of the deaths in the NYC area were accompanied by other health conditions like asthma, diabetes, cancer or heart and lung disease. His "point" was that Covid-19 wasn't really killing these people, but that their underlying health conditions were. This is precisely the wrong way to think about the health impact of this illness. We are going to be seeing a marked increase in the loss of human life that goes beyond the horror stories we are currently seeing in Queens.
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
The Other Important Test
Much has rightly been made about America's lack of testing capacity for Covid-19. What is happening in Iceland is really important. Because Iceland is small, remote and self-contained, they have been able to test quite a lot of people, including the asymptomatic. They tested around 9000 people. Roughly 90 of those came back positive. But roughly 45 of those were completely asymptomatic. In other words, half of the confirmed cases registered as barely more than a light cough.
This has huge implications (if it's not somehow unique to Iceland's population). Britain's ill-fated plan of herd immunity through controlled infection might not have been a complete fustercluck. We still don't know how immune someone who's had the virus remains over time.
The other interesting finding from Iceland. This is critical:
This has huge implications (if it's not somehow unique to Iceland's population). Britain's ill-fated plan of herd immunity through controlled infection might not have been a complete fustercluck. We still don't know how immune someone who's had the virus remains over time.
The other interesting finding from Iceland. This is critical:
The work has also helped researchers to visualize the spread of the virus. "We can determine the geographic origin of the virus in every single [virus] in Iceland," he said, adding there are specific, minor mutations for the virus that came from Italy, Austria and the UK. "There was one that is specific to the west coast of the United States," he added.
Stefánsson wonders whether mutations in the virus are "responsible, in some way, for how differently people respond to it -- some just develop a mild cold, while some people need a respirator," or whether a person's genetics dictates their condition.
"Or is it a combination of these two?" he asks.
There is so much we don't know about the virus, including the degree of mutation. Most vexing of all is trying to figure out why some people get terrible versions of it and others just sail through it. That critical question is at the end: is it the genetics of the virus or the genetics of the patient or some combination of both? Until we know that, we have no way of gauging when to start relaxing these rather extraordinary restrictions.
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