The Other Important Test

Much has rightly been made about America's lack of testing capacity for Covid-19. What is happening in Iceland is really important.  Because Iceland is small, remote and self-contained, they have been able to test quite a lot of people, including the asymptomatic. They tested around 9000 people. Roughly 90 of those came back positive. But roughly 45 of those were completely asymptomatic. In other words, half of the confirmed cases registered as barely more than a light cough.

This has huge implications (if it's not somehow unique to Iceland's population). Britain's ill-fated plan of herd immunity through controlled infection might not have been a complete fustercluck. We still don't know how immune someone who's had the virus remains over time. 

The other interesting finding from Iceland.  This is critical:

The work has also helped researchers to visualize the spread of the virus. "We can determine the geographic origin of the virus in every single [virus] in Iceland," he said, adding there are specific, minor mutations for the virus that came from Italy, Austria and the UK. "There was one that is specific to the west coast of the United States," he added.

Stefánsson wonders whether mutations in the virus are "responsible, in some way, for how differently people respond to it -- some just develop a mild cold, while some people need a respirator," or whether a person's genetics dictates their condition.

"Or is it a combination of these two?" he asks.

There is so much we don't know about the virus, including the degree of mutation.  Most vexing of all is trying to figure out why some people get terrible versions of it and others just sail through it.  That critical question is at the end: is it the genetics of the virus or the genetics of the patient or some combination of both?  Until we know that, we have no way of gauging when to start relaxing these rather extraordinary restrictions.