Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Saturday, April 11, 2020

China

The United States currently has the most cases of Covid-19 and the most deaths according to the source I've been using.  Skeptics will point out two things.  One, we don't really have an accurate count of who is being killed by this virus.  There are both the additional deaths caused by the overloading of the health care systems around the world and the fact that people have likely died of the virus without authorities knowing that it was the virus.  The second objection is that China's numbers are almost certainly false.

China screwed up the initial response to Covid-19, though to be fair, they were the first that HAD to deal with it. Since then, most of the sniping between Washington and Beijing has been a continuation of the friction that has existed since Trump's election.

China will also be the laboratory for what happens when we re-open after lockdown. As a result, we need to make sure that the information coming out of China is accurate.  I don't have any great ideas about that, but it needs to happen.

Finally, we have good news on a potential vaccine. Usually, it takes over a year to bring a vaccine to bear, but these are not usual times, and I imagine that we will see the vaccine fast-tracked to market.  Also, it looks like doctors are coming up with better treatments, like Remdesivir, and various therapies like pronating patients to keep them from being intubated.

As that happens and we hopefully put this plague down, we need to start thinking about the next one, before the usual collective amnesia sets in. Again, that will focus on China. As the article at the link suggests, the "wet markets" are part of the problem, but that term is used a bit too indiscriminately.  How can China maintain these markets - which are a vital part of keeping their population fed - and enforce hygiene standards that will stop a future outbreak?

This is a global problem that will require helping China find the resources to solve it.  Trump's nativism and his natural impulse to pull up the drawbridge and man the walls simply won't work.  Like climate change, pandemic preparedness requires everything Trump doesn't have:
- A respect for experts.
- Multilateral agreements and cooperation with other countries.
- A functioning government.

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