Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, March 31, 2017

Flipping Flynn

I honestly don't know what to make of it, so just read Josh Marshall.

Fake News!

Steve Stockman was always a wretched little shit.  Now, he's not only indicted, but he's demonstrating how the right wing turns every accusation on its head.  Again, projection is so powerful on the right.  They are uniquely corrupt in these incidents (Democrats are mostly lechers) and so they project such nefarious deeds onto Democrats, or in Stockman's case, he conflates his situation with Trump's.

These people....

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Please Proceed, Dipshit

Trump should do more than direct Twittergasms of rage at the Freedumb Caucus.

He should start a new political party, the American Party, that resides in his special little place on the political spectrum: angry white dude shouting at clouds.  They should try and run a candidate in as many swing and safe districts as possible.

That will learn them....

Face, Meet Palm

Claire McCaskill has a tough job winning elections in Missouri as a Democrat.  However, it's tough to see the logic in her desire to avoid a filibuster of Neil Gorsuch.

It's this simple:

Option A: Filibuster Gorsuch and the GOP eliminates the filibuster for Supreme Court nominations.

Option B: "Keep your powder dry" for the NEXT opening, presumably a liberal or centrist jurist, and filibuster THAT person....and the GOP then eliminates the filibuster for Supreme Court nominations.

There is no option that allows the Democrats to prevent the seating of a far right ideologue like Neil Gorsuch as long as they have 50 or fewer votes in the Senate.  And I doubt there is a road to 51 seats in the Senate that doesn't involve fighting Trumpism tooth and nail.

Populism

Here is a really handy definition of what populism is.  It isn't "popular."

What is important is that populism's focus on the "people" over "elites" makes representative government dysfunctional, unless you channel the "popular will" through a charismatic leader who can claim to represent the people.  This is why most demagogues are populists.

It's also why a guy like Trump is going to fail.  He can't "run the government" because he's fundamentally at odds with the idea of representative government.  And then his policies are increasingly at odds with what "the people" want.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

The Chaos Caucus

Here's a legit question: Given the fractious nature of the GOP House right now and the inability of Trump to "lead" in any normal sense, what are the odds that we get a government shutdown with the GOP controlling the House, Senate and White House?

Right now, I'd say it's unlikely but not improbable, even if it's only for a few days.

The key figure does look to be Nancy Pelosi.  Ryan and Trump may very well need Democratic votes to keep the government open and even to avoid default on the debt.  Pelosi would be well within her rights to demand something in return.  Devin Nunes' scalp?  A patch for Obamacare?

Stay tuned for that.

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Wavy Gravy

I spent some time looking at congressional districts and their Cook Partisan Voting Index.  The CPVI is basically an attempt to measure whether a district or state leans one way or another and by how much.  It's not flawless, but it's a metric people use.  I then looked at ten states to see how many Republicans represented districts with a CPVI or R+10 or better.  In other words, which districts tilted to the GOP by ten points or less.

The reason I did so is because midterms elections are usually referenda on the sitting president and Trump's numbers are atrocious.  This sets up the conditions for a "wave election."  Roughly speaking a "wave" overrides both the CPVI and the advantages of incumbency.

Here are the 12 states: CA, VA, PA, MI, OH, WI, CO, FL, NY and NJ.

Here is what I found if we just take seats in D+ or even CPVI:

California flips four seats to Democrats, New York flips three, Colorado, Virginia and New Jersey all flip one for a total of ten seats.  This is significant, because CA, NY and NJ are strong lean Democratic states and Virginia and Colorado are toss-ups.  The overall culture of the state can matter a great deal.  I would expect most if not all of those ten seats to flip in 2018, unless Trump's fortunes reverse by a huge amount.  I mean a YUUUGE amount.

What about the "lean Republican" districts with a CPVI of R+5 or lower?  That adds 3 more to CA, 5 more to NY and 2 more to VA and 1 more each to NJ and CO.  However, it also adds the following states: OH flips 2 seats, but FL and WI flip 4 each, PA flips 5 and MI flips 7.  That's a total of 32 more seats.

So a wave that wipes away the 5 point partisan/incumbent advantage puts 42 House seats in play.  Go up to a 7 point wave and that adds 2 more from PA and MI, 3 more from NJ and 5 each from FL and OH.  That's 17 more seats.

Democrats need to flip 24 seats in 2018 to hand the gavel back to Nancy Pelosi.  If they flip those first 10 seats, half the "lean Republican" districts and a third of the "strong lean" Republican districts, that's 31 seats.

This is very inexact, as it fails to account for the shifting demographics of WWC and suburban, college educated whites, who are moving in opposite partisan directions under Trump.  But it's better than saying "Democrats have to win the 'National Popular Vote for the House' by 7%."  Because what Democrats have to do is create a wave overrides the partisan and natural gerrymandering present in today's House.  That is best measured district by district.

But one thing it definitely should suggest is that Democrats have a real shot - at this point in time - of taking back the House.  This is especially true because they have some very winnable seats in CA and NY, where the cultural tide is working against the GOP.  There are additional <R+5 seats in AZ (2), IL(5), IA (2), ME, MN (2), NE, NV, NM, TX, WA (2).  That adds 18 more seats in play, some of which are in fertile ground, like Illinois, Washington and Minnesota.

And this is where getting WWC voters to turn on Trump could make for an historic wave election.  Because right now, they are the only group still supporting him.  Secondly, Democrats need to start recruiting and training candidates NOW.




Why Electing Morons Matters

To be fair, the issue of Artificial Intelligence and job loss isn't something the Obama Administration actively dealt with.  However, the real crisis is just over the horizon, and Trump is completely clueless about it. In fact, Trump's political success can largely be attributed to his exploitation of worker angst over job losses and tying that to trade and immigration, when technology is about as much to blame.  Since Trump can never be wrong, turning his focus to AI seems a remote possibility.

Immediately after the election, I suggested a way for Democrats to reach out to WWC voters was to put forth state-by-state bans on AI-driven commercial vehicles.  This could obviously run into constitutional problems regarding interstate trade, but even that would force the issue into the national conversation.

Democrats had a big "negative" win in defeating the American Shit Sandwich Act.  They should put forth an agenda to protect American truckers and let Republicans argue against it.

Monday, March 27, 2017

"Run Like A Business"

The tired mantra that we need a President who can run America like a business is about to get its acid test.  Der Obergropenfuhrer just went to his Cabinet of Nepotism and plucked Jared Kushner to lead his equivalent of Al Gore's National Performance Review. 

A few thoughts.

First, Al Gore has one big advantage over Kushner.  He's not a neophyte with no governing experience.  Gore knew how government function - and what's more important - why government should function.  He understood that government actions were intended to help as many people as possible, but that there were efficiency problems. But in the end, the point of the NPR was make government work better and more efficiently AS GOVERNMENT.  It's unclear that Trump's Gang That Can't Shoot Straight even understands how government works, much less why it should work.

Second, Kushner is supposed to lead a SWAT team of high profile business execs to come up with solutions.  Again, this is treating the bureaucracy as the opposing camp, which is natural for business leaders to do.  There's dynamic tension that's healthy between the private and public sector; each has a role to play.  But once you eliminate that tension by giving all the power to private sector actors, you create real problems.

Third, who is going to want to work the Trump White House?  Names in article mentioned Tim Cook, Bill Gates and Elon Musk.  These are Democratic donors.  What's more, the demographic disadvantage that Democrats labor under - the Dems are clustered in cities - also means that Democrats control a large portion of the consumer economy.  Every time a business leader cozies up to Trump, he gets boycotted.  Look at Uber.

Fourth, as I'm typing this a news flash notes that Jared Kushner is being swept up into the Russia probe, because he's the only person Trump really seems to trust and was used as a go-between at several instances.

Trump has filled almost none of the administrative positions he needs to.  Whenever he wants something important done, he outsources it to Jared Kushner.  Jared Kushner is just as incompetent as Trump, though at least he does not appear to be as mentally and emotionally stunted as his boss.

This isn't "bold reform."  This is more nepotism and likely more incompetence and certainly yet another huge giveaway to the 1% at the expense of those Working Class, Economically Anxious voters who gave us this shitshow.

Sunday, March 26, 2017

The Long Game

To make a difference in DC, you have to be able to see the long game.  Obama saw the long game.  McConnell sees it.

Donald Trump does not see it.

Right now, he's attacking Paul Ryan through surrogates for the failure of the American Shit Sandwich Act.  He's also attacking important conservative interest groups.  This is because he is a petulant child.

If Lord Smallgloves Babypants goes after Ryan more directly, exactly why should Paul Ryan protect Donald Trump?  It would start with Ryan ruefully - he does fake sincerity SOOOO well - saying that, indeed, Devin Nunes is a hack, and we need an independent, bipartisan commission to look into this Russia thing.  It ends with the complete rupture of the GOP caucus.

However, there are GOP Congressmen who get the long game.

Keep an eye on Tom Cotton.  He established his wingnut bona fides early.  He's already moving to the center - at least rhetorically - to emerge from the wreckage of the Trump Regency.

Saturday, March 25, 2017

The Coming Civil War In The GOP

For years, the coalition that creates the modern GOP has been fractious.  The Wall Street Republicans and the Main Street Republicans are standing aside, aghast and agog, at the Theocratic Republicans and the John Birch/Tea Party Republicans.  What is unclear is where Paul Ryan fits into this coalition.  Wall Street loves him, but it seems both Main Street and the JB/TP wings hate him - or at least his American Shit Sandwich Health Care Act.

Ryan only became Speaker when no one else could or would do the job.  He shrewdly played coy with the idea and forced certain conditions before taking the gavel.  Now it looks as if Ryan has a full scale revolt on his hand.

Martin Longman as a logical but implausible plan for Trump to salvage his presidency.  Trump could cobble together a legislative coalition to pass some things he has said he's interested in: more and better health care coverage; infrastructure; maybe even a border tax.  The problem - as demonstrated by the American Shit Sandwich Health Care Act is that we have no idea what Trump really cares about.  This bill violated every promise he made and he still supported it.  Why?

The GOP has an increasingly unpopular president at the head of an increasingly unpopular agenda.  Then there is the Russia scandal percolating over to the side.

We are barely more than two months into this....

Friday, March 24, 2017

Round Two Of Healthcare Thunderdome

Today, the GOP demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that they are unfit and unable to govern.  In some ways this is the perfect marriage of Trump and Ryan.

However, the fight over the ACA isn't over.

Trump is nothing if not a vindictive prick.  It's essentially his defining characteristic. He is now vowing to destroy the Affordable Care Act markets.  Tom Price could grant every manner of exemptions to Red States to create dysfunctional markets, presumably they could work actively make the markets worse and slow walk any easy fixes.

The assumption is that if the Affordable Care Act implodes, this will hurt the Democrats who wrote the law.

This fundamentally mistakes how low information voters process events and make decisions.  If their health care sucks, they will blame the President - especially the President who promised them "the best healthcare" and then spent a month defining his presidency with the Shit Sandwich Healthcare Act of 2017.  It doesn't matter the intricacies of policy making in DC or how the markets are being regulated or the feasibility of insurers to offer good premiums in rural markets.

Republicans run the government.  Republicans will get the blame.

Some Republicans - especially at the state level - might begin to work within the framework of Obamacare, now that Obama isn't president.

But the fight over this bill isn't exactly over.  It will remain on the books until a Democratic President and Congress can fix it, but the GOP hasn't finishing swatting at this particular pinata.

Amateur Hour

Today...maybe...I guess...Republican lemmings will plummet off the cliff that Paul Ryan and Donald Trump have led them to.  Most of them will wind up voting for a bill that an overwhelming majority of Americans disapprove of. Precisely the same sort of partisan loyalty that we are seeing from Devin Nunes will sweep dozens of GOP members of Congress off the precipice.

The desire to have a vote without really knowing what is in the bill is a great example of how Republicans have been poisoned by their own bullshit.  Seven years ago, Nancy Pelosi said that people would have to vote on the bill to find out what was in the bill.  What she meant was that the system had to be in place - providing health care for people - before you could really know how it would affect you as an individual.  Fox turned this into a lie that no one knew what was in the bill because it was a secret and/or SOOOOOOOO long.  Obamacare was debated and negotiated over for a full year.

Trumpcare/Ryancare is being forced through the system so fast there is no reasonable ability of the CBO to score it.  This is categorically not what happened with ACA, though there are a considerable amount of right wing lies on this score.    The reason it is being forced on the House is that Trump "has the attention span of a tsetse fly with a concussion."  He's bored with health care ("Who knew it could be so complicated?") and wants to get back to winning and being the best and playing golf and pretending his father and various wives really loved him.  The fact that this bill is the exact opposite of what he assured his ardent fans seems not to faze him.

Paul Ryan made the decision to push AHCA so he could get larger tax cuts in his plan to destroy the New Deal/Great Society state.  Despite his reputation as a "deep policy thinker" Paul Ryan is really no more than a typically conservative who spend too many hours as an adolescent pretending he was John Galt and masturbating to fantasies of Dagny Taggart.  He is able to project a sort of hang-dog sincerity that masks an almost sociopathic desire to strip people of government benefits, including the very sort of benefits that sent him to college.

While you should never underestimate the ability of GOP Congressmen to swallow the party line, I would be surprised if AHCA passes today.  At some point, the combination of naked self-interest and ideological rigidity will peel away quite a few votes.  It will be interesting to see whether - if the bill is headed to certain defeat - GOP members will change their votes to "no."  Why have a vote for this shit sandwich on your record?  So, it either passes by a vote or three or it might go down by 50 votes.  And if it passes, it dies in the Senate.

There you have the 2017 GOP.  They control the White House, the Senate, the House and are about to control the Supreme Court.  They have trampled the institutional and governing norms that ran Washington for centuries.  They have campaigned for 7 years against the ACA.

And they can't achieve shit.

Good job, Republicans.  Good job.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

Jon Chait, Friend Of The Blog

Apparently, Jon Chait reads my blog, since he addresses the exact phenomenon I wrote about yesterday: the failure of an agreed upon objective reality.

Chait couches it in different language, however.  He notes that what Trump is basically engaging in is authoritarianism.  Trump can determine what the truth is because Trump is president and you're not.

Trump's motivation for lying repeatedly and unapologetically is actually really important.  If he's lying because he wants to bend the country - or at least the third of the country who really, really likes him - to his vision of reality, then he's an authoritarian.  If he's "gaslighting" the country, he's the con man we all know him to be.  Or, perhaps, he believes his lies.

If the last option is true - if Trump believes what he's saying because he's president and he's Trump - then Trump is psychotic.  I know the Goldwater Rule says you can't diagnose a public figure from a remove, but I'm not a psychiatrist.  Plus, seeing and believing things that aren't real is pretty much an agreed upon definition of psychosis.

I guess the question is whether Trump gets removed by impeachment for colluding with the Russians to undermine American democracy or whether he gets removed by the 25th Amendment.