It's Up To Us

One of the hallmarks of American society is that in the absence of a strong, active state, Americans historically relied on the loosely defined term "civil society" to solve their ills.  Tocqueville was the first (naturally) to explore America's endless "joining."  If we think about the various groups that typically organize especially around small town life like Rotary Clubs, the Lions, the Shriners and other aspects of life, we usually think about the 1950s and '60s. I suppose these organizations still exist, but the exist on the margins.

As we face a complete absence of national coordination on Covid-19 policy and it increasingly becomes a cause celebre amongst the Populist Right to fly in the face of public health measures, it will be up to Americans as individuals and small groups to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. Masking, social distancing and avoiding large crowds is really all we have left until a vaccine or therapy arrives.

There is decent evidence that Americans ARE taking this responsibility seriously. While we won't get little fezzes, vests and go-carts like the Shriners, masks will become the uniform of the responsible. Admittedly, I'm in a part of the country that was hit very hard, and therefore - even though I live in maybe the most Republican town in the state - compliance has been pretty high.

Shaming people into masking and social distancing won't work, but if there was some way to create positive social capital by acknowledging mask wearing, that might help.

The problem of the next month is clear. If the epidemiologists are right, we are going to see a new wave of outbreaks across the South and midwest. For various reasons, the "Blue" states might see less of a wave at first.  However, the problem with the coronavirus is that two week delayed fuse. For instance, Georgia has rushed to re-open and is not currently seeing a spike in cases. Perhaps that is a lack of testing or even fudging the numbers. Perhaps it because most people in Atlanta were slow to embrace reopening. Or perhaps we simply have to wait a week or two before we see the wave.

It's not simply a two week delay. It's a two week delay before we START to see a mild increase in cases, but then it will start to grow exponentially.  "Super spreader events" seem to be at the heart of the spread of Covid-19. So we will see a few things open, a few souls will venture out. Nothing will happen. The sky won't fall.  So they will start leaving their masks at home, start going out in ways that are dangerous. There will be a birthday party or a church gathering.

All of this will take several weeks. We have good reason to believe that the virus was in the US in February, percolating under the surface.  It only exploded in late March.

Maybe...just maybe...the experts are wrong.  Maybe warm weather will kill this thing.  I doubt it.

Instead, it should be incumbent on us to organize ourselves to provide the guidance and responsibility that our government won't.

We are the only hope we have.

UPDATE: Never mind.  We're doomed.