Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Thursday, April 1, 2021

Primaries

 It's welcome news that Democrats are considering sidelining Iowa and New Hampshire from helping select their nominees. One of the ideas is to make Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada all on the same day. This is an excellent idea. (First, though, they should get rid of caucuses entirely.) 

Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white and rural/exurban. While NH is sort of a swing state, IA is trending Republican. Of course, SC is a solidly Republican state, but the Democrats in SC are overwhelmingly African American and are currently less integral to the decision of who will be the Democratic nominee.

Biden successfully overcame Bernie Sanders appeal among the white, rural progressives of IA and NH when he started tallying victories in more diverse states, but it didn't really look that way for a while, and there is another scenario where a different "Not Bernie" candidate consolidates support amongst either African American or Latine voters. 

The other advantage of having four states on one day is that you will have to create a nationwide campaign right off the bat.  The quirky, personal politics of IA are completely divorced from the realities of running a national campaign. 

Let IA, NH, SC and NV go first. Then, two weeks later, have a slate of mid-range states: VA, NJ, WA, MN for instance. Then GA, MI, MA and CO. At that point, it will be clearer who can reach across ethnic, racial and educational demographics.

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