Potentially Huge

 Unsurprisingly, Ukraine has slipped from the headlines. This is both a product of media attention deficit disorder and the fact that the conflict has largely slipped into a static war of attrition. Two huge things have happened that could signal a new phase of the war. First, Putin called up some reserve units, signaling that Russia is running low on manpower. Putin has been reluctant to do this, for the same reason that Bush never brought back the draft during his wars: simulacrum of normalcy. 

Second, Ukraine has finally launched their counteroffensive near Kherson. The two are linked, in that offensive operations usually incur higher casualties than defensive operations. Offensives also require more material and logistics. The latter is what sunk Russia's initial invasion. 

As Ukraine goes over on the offensive, they could incur higher casualties, just as Russia is presumably bringing new units into Ukraine. Or maybe Russia is bringing new units into Ukraine, because the Ukrainians have so attrited Russian forces that they are in danger of collapse.

Regardless, this conflict - which has been largely measured in hundreds of meters of movement a day all summer - could be about to enter a new phase. The Ukrainians have been "preparing the battlefield" around Kherson for weeks, taking out bridges and supply depots. Kherson is the most distant reach of the Russian advance into Ukraine and arguably the place that Ukraine must liberate first. 

There is a real potential for Russian collapse in the area of Kherson, with a retreat to Crimea and potentially even the Donbas. At that point, it becomes a question of whether either side will countenance a status quo ante at the negotiating table. 

In terms of material, Ukraine is getting stronger, while Russia gets weaker. Russia is now buying Iranian drones, for instance. There is also no question of Ukrainian will to fight, which is superior to Russia's. The real question is manpower. Does Ukraine have the troops to press an advantage when they break through Russian lines?

We are about to find out.