Kherson

 Rumors swirl about a possible Ukrainian breakthrough near Kherson. Like Liman, Kherson was increasingly a trap, but one that Putin wouldn't let them escape. While it does appear that Russian forces finally abandoned Liman, there's no telling how many troops successfully retreated to Kremmina. Russia is bleeding men - which is why they are rushing conscripts to the front - and equipment - which they cannot replace. 

Putin and Russian commanders elected not to reinforce the northeastern sector after the successful Ukrainian Kharkiv counteroffensive. They continued to prioritize Kherson. By all accounts, Kherson has been a meatgrinder for both sides. Also by all accounts, Russia is running out of men faster than Ukraine is. Additionally, we have reports of Russian soldiers asking for air support...on social media. Totally normal.

If we are seeing a collapse of Russian forces on the west bank of Dnipro River, that could cause a cascading series of failures right into the streets of Kherson itself. 

Of course, as Josh Marshall points out, a defeated, humiliated Putin and Russia is imminently more dangerous. Russia does one thing well: rocketry and nuclear weapons. Is there anyone in the Kremlin who can restrain Putin from using them?