His Majesty, Paul Krugman, First of His Name, wonders why Americans feel so down about the economy. His explanations are good, up to a point. He notes that Republicans think the country is on fire, which is a combination of partisanship and the unhinged, alternate reality that is Faux News. Similarly, we are getting a steady stream of negative press reports and a weird doomerism among economists. All of those are right, but incomplete.
In my experience, when you look at economic crises, you often see a tail of negativity that exists beyond the return to good economic conditions. For instance, Clinton and Democrats got hammered in 1994 and Obama similarly in 2010 because the "economy was still bad." We know, looking backwards, that the recovery was underway, but the psychic shock of hard times does not recede until a few months later.
What this means for Biden and Democrats in 2024 is that - if we avoid plunging the world into economic calamity in June - then we should be riding the crest of a generally healthy economy. I suppose the Fed could screw things up by going overboard in fighting inflation, but post-inflationary recoveries are usually quick and robust.
It's not surprising to me that people generally feel like their economic status is pretty good, but they feel pessimistic about the economy as a whole. That's pretty normal at this stage in a recovery.
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