The two great "white whales" for Democrats are currently Florida and Texas. If Dems can consolidate and expand their leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan, that leaves very few battleground states. Hold those states and either Nevada or Wisconsin (or Georgia or Arizona) gives you the White House. However, there is a certain merit in running up the scoreboard on Trump and Republicans. Sweep the Battleground States listed above and then you move on to North Carolina (which I think is sneaky "gettable" this cycle) Texas and Florida.
If Democrats can flip Texas or Florida into the Democratic camp, there is no sustainable way for Republicans to win the White House or control the House of Representatives. Over at Balloon Juice there are two different takes on Florida. The first is about efforts by Florida Dems to reinvigorate their party. Quite a few state level Democratic Parties are just terrible. Even in Blue States like New York, the party apparatchiks are just bad. So go to it, Florida Dems.
It's the second piece that I think is more promising. Ron DeSantis' desperate ploy to unseat Trump is forcing him further and further rightwards and he's embraced a host of terrible policies that are making things in Florida really bad. His ethnonationalism and bullying style have led to a major backlash in Florida's most important industry: tourism. The exodus of academics from Florida's otherwise very good state university system (seriously, I was surprised at how high U Florida ranked) will cause long term decay. DeSantis has opened another front on the war on women by going after alimony of all things. His hardline anti-immigration law has led to a 25% decline in construction workers and that number figures to be much higher in agriculture and things like custodial work.
I suppose there's a question about whether the economic hurt inflicted by DeSantis will stick to him or get deflected to Biden. The abortion ban he passed will directly hurt Republicans at the polls though.
The model here is Kansas. Kansas is obviously a deeply conservative state, but it does elect statewide Democrats because of the absolute dumpster fire that Republican governance under Sam Brownback created. Now, Kansas has not voted from a Democratic presidential candidate, but Florida's demographics aren't Kansas' either.
I still hold that the two most important issues in 2024 will be Dobbs and January 6th. It will be a referendum on Trumpist anti-democratic actions and the assault on women's rights. But local politics matter, and DeSantis' terrible record as Governor might help nudge Florida enough to the center for Democrats to pick it off.
Having said that, under no circumstances should Democrats rely on Florida to get them over 270 electoral votes. That place remains crazy.
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