Uh Oh

 Since October, I think one of the primary goals of the United States in the Israel-Hamas war has been to limit the conflict to Gaza. A wider war would be..bad.

In the last day or so, the IDF killed a senior Hamas leader in Hezbollah territory, prompting Hezbollah to promise retribution. Meanwhile, there was a large blast in Iran at the grave of Qasem Soleimani. No one has claimed responsibility for the Iran blast, and frankly killing a bunch of their own citizens to create regime legitimacy is something that Iran's government did during the revolution. Still, it's reasonable to suspect Israel may have partnered with regime opponents to plan the attack. 

The Israel-Hamas war is part of the larger conflict between just about every country in the Middle East against Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthi. It has been US policy (I think) to confine this conflict to Gaza, but constraining Israel has proven near impossible. Netanyahu could wager that Israel is strong enough to weather any backlash from Washington over expanding the war. 

Frankly, killing Hamas' leadership is far, far preferable to what the IDF is doing in Gaza now. However, once Mossad and IDF start bumping off leadership that makes the leaders of groups like Hezbollah nervous enough to risk open conflict with Israel. Netanyahu might further wager that a wider war could build more support for him in some corners of the US political establishment. Iran is bad, and expanding the war to include the Iranian sponsors of Hamas could be Netanyahu's next move.

There were rumors that the US and other NATO naval forces were going to attack Houthi missile sights after repeated attacks on international shipping, but that hasn't happened yet. If this breaks out into a regional war, Biden will have a perilous choice to make. If he continues to support Netanyahu, he further erodes his standing with (somewhat delusional) supporters of Palestinians (and Hamas ferfucksake). He can't claim a mantle of peacemaker if we are dragged back into the Middle East. Frankly, I think the last thing he wants to do is get sucked back into that dysfunctional region. 

If he breaks with Israel, I'm not sure what the cost would be for him politically, frankly, except for the well-worn support that Israel has on both sides of the aisle. If Hezbollah and Iran start attacking Israel directly, there will be considerable pressure to get involved "kinetically". Hopefully, he can resist it.