Tactical Success, But...

 I don't agree with Yglesias most of the time, but I think his points here are very strong. Iran should not be allowed to have nuclear weapons, but that was precisely what the JCPOA had done: prevented them from getting a nuclear weapon. Trump pulled out of the JCPOA because Obama and now has resorted to bombing Iran to stop them from acquiring the weapon that the JCPOA prevented them from having before he tore it up.

Someone noted about Netanyahu that he has enjoyed multiple tactical successes since 10/7. The decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah; the brutal cowing of Gaza; the fall of Assad. What he has not achieved is anything like strategic success. He hasn't created long term security for Israel. 

This feels very similar to what we have just done in Iran. Israel has largely destroyed Iran's air defenses, so dropping the bombs on the three nuclear sites was actually fairly low risk/high reward - if all you care about is delaying their nuclear program. Not ending it, mind you, just delaying it again. This all feels like something we are going to have do again and again, as long as Iran is a rogue state.

Yglesias also notes that Netanyahu played Trump perfectly with this, because Trump is stupid and vain. What's more, there is a stunning lack of experience in the entire national security apparatus right now. These are not 12 dimensional chess type people. Do we really think the president and those around them are looking weeks and months and years down the line?

The initiative now shifts to Iran. Trump has said that Iran has to "negotiate" - which I think means capitulate - in order to avoid more strikes. Iran, however, is in an existential crisis. The regime HAS to strike back. The Straits of Hormuz and various oil sites around the Middle East would be a natural target to retaliate. Driving up oil prices is their most immediate tools available. Certainly various terror attacks against soft targets should be expected. Or, given the state of their air defenses, they simply lay low and wait. Strike next fall.

The strikes on Iran were unconstitutional and illegal, but LOL nothing matters. The next step will be taken by Iran. They are in a precarious place, but I don't think capitulation is something that they can entertain. At some point, I could see a decapitation strike against Khamenei, but I could also see Iran strike at American politicians, too. 

I suppose they could shoot up a school, but Republicans don't seem to care about that.

Terror attacks in the US would further enflame Trumpist assaults on civil liberties and would be the worst outcome for the US and accelerate our descent into authoritarianism. Blowing up some oil tankers and attacking some embassies...that's probably a best case scenario at this point.

Strategically, this doesn't make us safer in the long run.

And for other would-be Irans, the lesson is clear: get a nuclear weapon before the US can blow your program up.