The operating assumption of Trump during the shutdown has been that the longer it goes on, the more people suffer, the more likely Democrats are to cave.
However, SNAP benefits expiring doesn't "hurt" Democrats, in the sense that everyone "knows" that Democrats support SNAP and Republicans don't.
Now, we have the ACA subsidies expiring and the letters going out informing people of what they are going to have to pay next year. This is happening while Democrats are refusing to vote for a CR until those subsidies are restored. In other words, these two news stories are going to flow into each other.
Again everyone "knows" that Democrats want you to have health insurance and Republicans want you to earn health insurance. The GOP doesn't understand that both ACA and SNAP help working families. They are so wedded to the idea that all "welfare" is a scam that they are about to face the coming train head first.
I don't think that an up-or-down vote on extending the ACA subsidies would fail in a vacuum. Trump has decided that Democrats can't "win" this showdown, so people are going to suffer rather than have both parties work to solve the issue. All for the whims of the Mad King.
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