Special elections are just that: special. Still, the Democrats have been crushing special elections since Trump took office, and last night they flipped two seats in Florida's legislature. One of the districts includes Mar A Lago. Trump, of course, voted by mail, which he's trying to kill with the SAVE Act.
There are examples of interviews and posts of people decrying their vote for Trump. Anecdotes, though, are not data. The elections we have seen with Democrats overperforming by around 10-15 points, suggest that those anecdotes represent something real. Reuters has his polling collapsing even further and there's clearly some flop sweat in the GOP today.
Ideally what we see in November is that Democrats are prepared to crawl over broken glass and swim through lemon juice to vote whereas many MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans just stay home, dispirited by the shitshow their orange god has unleashed on America and the world.
I really think there will be competitive Senate races in Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and even Kansas. There is going to be a Senate seat that flips Blue that will have people surprised. Not because MAGA is abandoning Trump personally, but because they have soured on politics althogether.
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