Trump has committed the US to a disastrous war of choice that has left the other side militarily defeated by political stronger. Iran has learned how to choke off the world economy at their whim. That's...not good.
So, what can we do.
1) Ground Invasion. I doubt this will happen, and it would go poorly. Ask the Russians.
2) Surrender. Most likely outcome, though the amount of psychic death Trump would experience would be profound. Could he sustain himself if he lost this war?
These aren't great options.
The final option is one that might be available to someone other than Trump.
3) Establish a multinational force to insure freedom of navigation of the Straits of Hormuz. Create lasting security guarantees for the Iranian government, but use the combined pressure of the EU/NATO and China to re-open the straight.
The problem with (3) is that it requires Trump not to be Trump. What's more, as this piece lays out, Trump has gone from "unpredictable" to "unreliable." There was a sort of efficacy to Trump's unpredictability, in that it forced opposing actors to be on constant alert for changes in direction. It functioned as a sort of variation on the Madman Theory. "Who knows what that crazy bastard will do?"
Now, however, Trump is accurately seen as simply unreliable. There is no secret plan. What's more, you cannot rely on him to abide by his agreements. This is why he crashed out of NYC real estate. No one would work for him, because he wouldn't honor his contracts. He stiffed people, sued for no reason and was a general asshole. That is a strategy of diminishing returns.
Trump's chaotic unreliability means that no one - and I mean no one - can rely on the US to honor its agreements. That's a real problem for global peace and it makes any solution to the Iran stalemate impossible.
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