Reckless Vs Responsible

Over at the Great Orange Satan, there is really only one thing I read with regularity and that's their Abbreviated Pundit Roundup.  Today, they take Dana Milbank to task for comparing St. Bernard with Tailgunner Ted and the Trumpalumpa.

Milbank acknowledges the very different styles of Sanders and Trump/Cruz.  He is not comparing the nature of the message or the messengers themselves.  He compares the practicality of each of the three candidates' plans.  None of them are plausible.  Trump and Cruz's tax plans are so transparently mendacious that they almost render debate on them impossible.  How do you debate someone about which animal is better if they pick a unicorn that is crossed with a lion and a dragon?

Sanders proposals are extreme in the other direction.  While the Trump and Cruz promise ridiculous tax cuts that can never be paid for, Sanders, at least, proposes spending money on Americans.  But he does so without any plausible way to pay for it.  Not even most of it.  Even with massive tax increases, adding the sort of spending that he wants to spend is onerous.

You can make two counterarguments.  One is that this is precisely the strategy behind "starve the beast" where Republicans run up debt so that Democrats can't add programs when they get the levers of power.  Or you can argue that Republicans routinely run out ridiculous math in campaigns, why can't Sanders.

Neither argument accounts for reality.  Milbanks best point is that elevating expectations to absurd heights is a recipe for disillusionment and anger.  We are already seeing this on the GOP side, where the Teanderthals promised to repeal everything Obama ever did and defeat him in 2012.  When they were unable to do anything, the GOP coughed up the orange colored anger magnet Donald Trump.

Up until now, St. Bernard's basic decency has led me to say things like, "I like Sanders, but..."  This is the close cousin to "I don't like Hillary, but..."  Well screw that.  Sanders is actually dangerous to liberal governance, because one huge advantage liberals have is that we work within the realm of reality.

Sanders undermines this advantage.

Your Daily Obamacare Horror Story

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/your-stories-about-obamacare

Just read it...

I'd Heard It Was Good

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/23/opinion/sunday/bruni-a-fathers-journey-on-gay-marriage.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0&smid=tw-share

And it was.

UPDATE: And so is this:

http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/23/us/connecticut-shooting-newtown-message-of-peace/index.html

A Thousand Words

This is what civil rights looked like 50 years ago.

This is what it looks like today.

The Death Of The Wedge Issue

Voters in several states had two wedge issues on the ballot: same sex marriage and marijuana laws.

In Maryland, Maine and Washington, voters - for the first time - explicitly and directly legalized same sex marriage.  Particularly in Maryland (Baltimore) I think Obama's endorsement of same sex marriage made a real difference.

In Massachusetts, suddenly a lot of people developed glaucoma, as they legalized medical marijuana.  In Colorado and Washington, they said, "Forget nausea and PTSD, just spark up dude!"  The legalization of small amounts of marijuana is a remarkable thing to happen by ballot initiative.  Medical marijuana only barely failed in Arkansas.

Arkansas.

The War on Drugs and the War on "Traditional Marriage" have been conservative vote getters for decades.  Gay marriage may have cost John Kerry the presidency.

Those days are gone, apparently, although we might see a marijuana backlash at some point.

Watching the presidential returns was like watching a DVR'ed football game, where you already knew who won, but you were waiting to see how it played out.

But the ballot initiatives were truly interesting.

Wonkette Made Me Cry

http://wonkette.com/488859/obama-sends-letter-to-girl-who-wrote-to-him-about-her-two-dads-that-will-not-make-you-cry-at-all#more-488859

Because My Kids Can't Stop Watching This

I don't usually like this stuff, but this is amazing.  This puts the X-Games back into X-mas this year.

A Good Day At Daily Kos

Master Class

Some guy at Daily Troll makes a very astute point about Obama's strategy.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/12/22/930875/-I-was-wrong

Basically, Obama believes that ideological, bitter partisan fights are good for the GOP, because the GOP requires a great deal of cynicism about government.  "A pox on both your houses" is not a good mood for the electorate to be in, when it comes time to elect Democrats.  After all, the Democrats are trying to govern in a way that changes the existing structure of power.  The GOP seeks to perpetuate it.

This justifies Obama's strategy of focusing on results over victories.  He wants government policies to be accepted, because they make people's lives better, not because they are ideological pure.  It's a remarkably astute observation by Obama and this Karl Trautman guy.

Additionally, look at THIS from DK:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/12/22/930899/-Poll:-Lame-duck-boosts-Obama;-GOP-slips

Obama "capitulates" to the hostage takers and the Left freaks out about how Obama is terrible and will be a one term president.

And his polling numbers go up.

Additionally, the public now more than ever sees the GOP as the party that is obstructing progress.  When we have our government shutdown soon - likely over the budgeting for HCR - Obama has already defined himself as the reasonable one.  Things like the GOP denying health care to 9/11 responders are what will help define the debate.

UPDATE: Spoke too soon.  Some are in a freak-out over Obama's executive order about 48 Gitmo detainees.  I tried to point out that Congress kept Obama and Holder from trying these guys in court.  Pointless.

And Now For Something Completely Different

Yes, please...

Now for some good news!

Bondad's blog has become my favorite place to read charts and graphs that I only dimly understand because my pre-Calc teacher was insane and I stopped learning math in 1983.

Anyway there's this.

He basically relays that most economists foresee steady growth next year.  In another post, he shows how some sectors of the economy (including - counter-intuitively - manufacturing) have rebounded quite nicely.  Right now basically retail, construction and state governments are the locus of unemployment.

He also notes that the recovery stalled to some degree over Greece and Ireland and continued worries about Spain and Portugal.  IF - and it's a big if - Europe is serious about keeping the Euro afloat, then they will have to keep Spain afloat and that means...PONIES FOR EVERYONE!

Well, if not a pony, then maybe a real recovery.  Without the benefit of fancy Bondadian math, I would presume you would look for retail to pick up first.  Construction is hurt by so much excess capacity that it will likely take longer.  State governments will be the real tell.  With it unlikely that the GOP House will approve any more aid to states, local governments will need to wait for tax receipts to pick up before they can rehire the clerks and public works people that they are either laying off or attritting.

Again, this would seem to suggest that the short term stimulus of the tax deal that Krugman worries will be over too fast, might be OK.