Josh Marshall gives a nice rundown of how China is calling us out. He catalogs how China both A) originally downplayed and tried to hide the virus and then B) did mostly everything right. Both are true. What is also true is that we did a terrible job with the lead time we did have and - more importantly - CONTINUE to do a poor job.
Those who continue to throw shade at China are simply trying to distract from the disastrous response that we had and continue to have. It is mind-boggling that we still don't seem to have any sort of national plan for widespread testing. Some countries nailed it from the start, some are getting better. What is amazing is that we have no national plan to deal with this. Instead, we are giving a veto to any yahoo who thinks this is overblown because he isn't personally sick.
One other thing. Aside from Germany, when you look at countries that have handled this well, they are usually fairly remote - like Australia and New Zealand - or they have extensive experience with SARS - like Hong Kong or Singapore - or a combination of both - South Korea and Taiwan. Proximity to China actually HELPED these countries, because they had put plans in place after SARS. They wear masks all the time. Widespread masking and testing is really the only way we get back to "normal," whatever that might mean.
Are we great again yet?
Thursday, April 30, 2020
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
More On Excess Deaths
Josh Marshall was one of the first people to point out this phenomenon of "excess deaths." Simply put, there is an "expected" number of deaths in any given month. Then we have laboratory confirmed Covid-19 tests. Then we have a mysterious number of additional deaths above the average, but not laboratory confirmed as Covid-19. Some of these are definitely directly related to the virus (which we are discovering can kill you in a horrifyingly diverse set of ways), and some are simply the product of either an overwhelmed health care system or people afraid to go to the ER in a timely manner.
Marshall has corralled some of the major stories about this phenomenon, and I think we have enough data points to say this is a very real thing. (We also know other forms of death like car crashes are falling.) If this is true (and it appears it is), then over 120,000 Americans may have lost their lives because of Covid-19. That's more than died in every conflict America has fought in, except the Second World War and the Civil War.
Marshall has corralled some of the major stories about this phenomenon, and I think we have enough data points to say this is a very real thing. (We also know other forms of death like car crashes are falling.) If this is true (and it appears it is), then over 120,000 Americans may have lost their lives because of Covid-19. That's more than died in every conflict America has fought in, except the Second World War and the Civil War.
Working The Refs When There Are No Refs
David Roberts lays out a case that Democrats need to take a page from Mitch McConnell's playbook. McConnell understands that it simply doesn't matter what Chuck Fucking Todd thinks. For too long, Democrats have tried to win the approval of gatekeepers and institutionalists. Roberts is right that those institutions are largely meaningless. Democrats should not care about what the punditry thinks about deficit spending when Democrats gain control of the White House and Senate again. They should not care, at this moment, about "obstructing" Republican efforts to bail out billionaires and large corporations. They should revel in those comparisons.
However, the Democrats are at a bit of a disadvantage in a way that Roberts does not acknowledge. McConnell's tactics work, because he leads a movement actively working to discredit the idea of competent, benevolent governance. McConnell (and really all Republicans) want Americans to distrust the idea that their government can provide important public goods. If Americans suddenly decided that social welfare programs and increased governmental health insurance were GOOD things, then their rationale for being in power is gone.
The problem is that American DO want a minimal level of governmental support, especially in a pandemic and global depression. It's the old joke of "a Democrat is a Republican who just lost his job." There are a lot of people who will blame the GOP for any bad outcomes. In fact, the people most likely to do so are the least political engaged and therefore the least partisan. So, taking a red line approach to the next stimulus bill and defying the GOP to obstruct is the right move to win in November. But they need to be wary of destroying the American people's faith in the ability of the government to do anything good.
However, the Democrats are at a bit of a disadvantage in a way that Roberts does not acknowledge. McConnell's tactics work, because he leads a movement actively working to discredit the idea of competent, benevolent governance. McConnell (and really all Republicans) want Americans to distrust the idea that their government can provide important public goods. If Americans suddenly decided that social welfare programs and increased governmental health insurance were GOOD things, then their rationale for being in power is gone.
The problem is that American DO want a minimal level of governmental support, especially in a pandemic and global depression. It's the old joke of "a Democrat is a Republican who just lost his job." There are a lot of people who will blame the GOP for any bad outcomes. In fact, the people most likely to do so are the least political engaged and therefore the least partisan. So, taking a red line approach to the next stimulus bill and defying the GOP to obstruct is the right move to win in November. But they need to be wary of destroying the American people's faith in the ability of the government to do anything good.
The Weirdest Part Of Trumpistan
Is finding myself nodding along with guys like Joe Walsh.
More broadly, reading this piece, I'm struck that Walsh - who's in many ways a terrible person - has a keener understanding of how American electoral politics works than the dead end Sandernistas do. There is really one choice for America in November: do we or do we not re-elect Donald Trump. If you think the answer to that question is "no" (and God pity you if you don't), then you have one choice, and that's Joe Biden. No one gives a shit if you aren't happy that Biden is the "not Trump" candidate. That's your choice and staying at home or voting for Justin Amash is also a choice, one that will help re-elect Trump.
More broadly, reading this piece, I'm struck that Walsh - who's in many ways a terrible person - has a keener understanding of how American electoral politics works than the dead end Sandernistas do. There is really one choice for America in November: do we or do we not re-elect Donald Trump. If you think the answer to that question is "no" (and God pity you if you don't), then you have one choice, and that's Joe Biden. No one gives a shit if you aren't happy that Biden is the "not Trump" candidate. That's your choice and staying at home or voting for Justin Amash is also a choice, one that will help re-elect Trump.
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
TL:DR: Marx Is Dumb
This is a very dense read, and a lot of it is obscured by Marxist lexicon. The broad point is that the Sandernistas did politics wrong because class is no longer a driving force in politics. This is broadly true among developed economies, but it is most noticeable in the birthplace of representative government: the US and the UK (the article doesn't talk about Corbyn, but his ghost flits around the edges of the essay).
There is a fair amount of talk about culture, without really talking about culture. By focusing on why Marxist class consciousness failed, it completely omits discussion of the civil rights revolution of 1955-1980. This included not only African American civil rights, but LGBT rights, second wave Feminism, Native American rights...the list is almost endless. All of this created a cultural backlash that has done more to define politics than "class" - a concept that has always had a weak grasp on American political imagination.
I'm sure this essay could have been written to describe why Eugene V. Debs never quite broke through.
Marx was a decent historian, looking at how forces within the economy could drive social change. OK, as far as it goes. He was an abject failure in predicting what came next. He has never been right about that.
He's like a doctor that accurately diagnosis you with a viral infection then suggest inject bleach and sticking a UV light up your ass.
There is a fair amount of talk about culture, without really talking about culture. By focusing on why Marxist class consciousness failed, it completely omits discussion of the civil rights revolution of 1955-1980. This included not only African American civil rights, but LGBT rights, second wave Feminism, Native American rights...the list is almost endless. All of this created a cultural backlash that has done more to define politics than "class" - a concept that has always had a weak grasp on American political imagination.
I'm sure this essay could have been written to describe why Eugene V. Debs never quite broke through.
Marx was a decent historian, looking at how forces within the economy could drive social change. OK, as far as it goes. He was an abject failure in predicting what came next. He has never been right about that.
He's like a doctor that accurately diagnosis you with a viral infection then suggest inject bleach and sticking a UV light up your ass.
Is This It?
Interesting data that perhaps what makes Covid-19 so lethal in some places is microclotting of the blood. The decline in lung function appears to be the tiny clots. Why does the virus cause these clots? No idea, but if you're looking for a therapy to bridge the gap until the vaccine is ready, this is perhaps promising.
Monday, April 27, 2020
Will Trump Qiut?
Paul Campos makes a case that Trump might simply walk away from the presidential race if his wholesale routing seems imminent. We are already seeing the GOP sidle away from Trump, as his bat shit press conferences and the exponential death rate become unavoidable.
It doesn't sound like Campos is suggesting that he will actually take the "Nixon Ride" on Marine One, but rather that he will denounce the race as rigged when he's down 15% in the polls in October. This would discourage the Trumpenproletariat from voting and likely trigger right wing militia violence both in the lead up to the election and after it. But it could also lead to a massive Democratic wave because Trump will be signalling to his supporters that it doesn't matter if they vote. Meanwhile, the lesson of 2016 will be seared into the minds of Democratic voters: Take Nothing For Granted.
It doesn't sound like Campos is suggesting that he will actually take the "Nixon Ride" on Marine One, but rather that he will denounce the race as rigged when he's down 15% in the polls in October. This would discourage the Trumpenproletariat from voting and likely trigger right wing militia violence both in the lead up to the election and after it. But it could also lead to a massive Democratic wave because Trump will be signalling to his supporters that it doesn't matter if they vote. Meanwhile, the lesson of 2016 will be seared into the minds of Democratic voters: Take Nothing For Granted.
Body Counts
At some point in the next 24-36 hours, the US's official tally of Covid-19 deaths will surpass the number of American lives lost in Vietnam from 1961-1975. What is striking about that number is that it almost certainly too low. This WaPo story does a job explaining the idea of "excess deaths" that seem to be a feature of Covid-19.
We have a pretty good idea how many people die every year, on average, in each month. We can also measure things like how many people die from illness in the winter, as opposed to car accidents in the summer.
What we are seeing with Covid-19 is a spike in numbers of deaths from various factors that seem to be part of the effects of the virus. Most states only attributed Covid-19 deaths in the presence of a positive test, plus pulmonary issues. As it became apparent that the virus attacked the heart and caused strokes, they added those deaths. The problem is the huge spike in deaths "at home" where there was no test. And we still don't really know how or why this illness is killing people.
So, we have one group of people who have died of Covid-19, but aren't being counted. We have a second group of people who are dying from a lack of medical care, because they are afraid or unwilling to go to the hospital in a timely manner. Those are secondary deaths caused by the pandemic, but aren't directly attributable to the virus.
There is some good news, in that auto accidents and murders are down considerably. Roughly 3000 Americans die every month in car accidents, so that number is decreasing, which is good. But that also means that the excess death number is rising in spite of other forms of death falling.
At this point, it's worth talking about why people might be fudging the numbers. If you're a public health official, you will want to include as many Covid deaths as possible for two reasons. First, you need an accurate count, so you understand just how deadly this illness is or isn't. That's an issue of accuracy. It's not implausible, that there is a second reason, and that is the desire of public health officials to drive home the idea that this is a scary disease in the face of opposition to public health measures. That might lead them to include some dubiously linked deaths, but generally speaking, scientists are interested in accuracy.
The problem - as always - are the anti-science, anti-intellectual factions of America. Because they are overwhelmingly Trump supporters, they tend to pick up on his prejudice in favor of re-opening the economy and his earlier statements about the virus being a hoax and under control. For them, any added deaths are simply an effort by pointy-headed elitists to make Trump look bad. This means that any effort to bring statistical analysis (instead of only those actually tested who died of pulmonary distress) to capture the true scale of the pandemic will be dismissed as "fake news."
When epidemiologists look back at April 27th (2PM ET), they won't see the official count of 56, 139 deaths. They will see a number much higher. It certainly looks like the "excess deaths" number has passed 100,000. The Trumpenproletariat won't believe them. Evangelicals washed the blood of Jesus will not believe them. But if the pandemic has proven anything, it's that the natural world doesn't give a shit about your a priori beliefs.
We have a pretty good idea how many people die every year, on average, in each month. We can also measure things like how many people die from illness in the winter, as opposed to car accidents in the summer.
What we are seeing with Covid-19 is a spike in numbers of deaths from various factors that seem to be part of the effects of the virus. Most states only attributed Covid-19 deaths in the presence of a positive test, plus pulmonary issues. As it became apparent that the virus attacked the heart and caused strokes, they added those deaths. The problem is the huge spike in deaths "at home" where there was no test. And we still don't really know how or why this illness is killing people.
So, we have one group of people who have died of Covid-19, but aren't being counted. We have a second group of people who are dying from a lack of medical care, because they are afraid or unwilling to go to the hospital in a timely manner. Those are secondary deaths caused by the pandemic, but aren't directly attributable to the virus.
There is some good news, in that auto accidents and murders are down considerably. Roughly 3000 Americans die every month in car accidents, so that number is decreasing, which is good. But that also means that the excess death number is rising in spite of other forms of death falling.
At this point, it's worth talking about why people might be fudging the numbers. If you're a public health official, you will want to include as many Covid deaths as possible for two reasons. First, you need an accurate count, so you understand just how deadly this illness is or isn't. That's an issue of accuracy. It's not implausible, that there is a second reason, and that is the desire of public health officials to drive home the idea that this is a scary disease in the face of opposition to public health measures. That might lead them to include some dubiously linked deaths, but generally speaking, scientists are interested in accuracy.
The problem - as always - are the anti-science, anti-intellectual factions of America. Because they are overwhelmingly Trump supporters, they tend to pick up on his prejudice in favor of re-opening the economy and his earlier statements about the virus being a hoax and under control. For them, any added deaths are simply an effort by pointy-headed elitists to make Trump look bad. This means that any effort to bring statistical analysis (instead of only those actually tested who died of pulmonary distress) to capture the true scale of the pandemic will be dismissed as "fake news."
When epidemiologists look back at April 27th (2PM ET), they won't see the official count of 56, 139 deaths. They will see a number much higher. It certainly looks like the "excess deaths" number has passed 100,000. The Trumpenproletariat won't believe them. Evangelicals washed the blood of Jesus will not believe them. But if the pandemic has proven anything, it's that the natural world doesn't give a shit about your a priori beliefs.
Sunday, April 26, 2020
Thank God For The Post
This is just an excellent column, and such a welcome contrast with how the Times tends to cover things. Some nice passages:
He showered praise on himself and his team, repeatedly touting the “great job” they were doing as he spoke of the “tremendous progress” being made toward a vaccine and how “phenomenally” the nation was faring in terms of mortality.
What he did not do was offer any sympathy for the 2,081 Americans who were reported dead from the coronavirus on that day alone — among nearly 53,000 Americans who have perished since the pandemic began.
What began as daily briefings meant to convey public health information have become de facto political rallies conducted from the West Wing of the White House. Trump offers little in the way of accurate medical information or empathy for coronavirus victims, instead focusing on attacking his enemies and lauding himself and his allies.
....
Over the past three weeks, the tally comes to more than 13 hours of Trump — including two hours spent on attacks and 45 minutes praising himself and his administration, but just 4½ minutes expressing condolences for coronavirus victims. He spent twice as much time promoting an unproven antimalarial drug that was the object of a Food and Drug Administration warning Friday. Trump also said something false or misleading in nearly a quarter of his prepared comments or answers to questions, the analysis shows.
...
The Post analysis of Trump’s daily coronavirus briefings over the past three weeks — from Monday, April 6 to Friday, April 24 — reveals a president using the White House lectern to vent and rage; to dispense dubious and even dangerous medical advice; and to lavish praise upon himself and his government....
Trump has attacked someone in 113 out of 346 questions he has answered — or a third of his responses. He has offered false or misleading information in nearly 25 percent of his remarks. And he has played videos praising himself and his administration’s efforts three times, including one that was widely derided as campaign propaganda produced by White House aides at taxpayer expense.
He showered praise on himself and his team, repeatedly touting the “great job” they were doing as he spoke of the “tremendous progress” being made toward a vaccine and how “phenomenally” the nation was faring in terms of mortality.
What he did not do was offer any sympathy for the 2,081 Americans who were reported dead from the coronavirus on that day alone — among nearly 53,000 Americans who have perished since the pandemic began.
What began as daily briefings meant to convey public health information have become de facto political rallies conducted from the West Wing of the White House. Trump offers little in the way of accurate medical information or empathy for coronavirus victims, instead focusing on attacking his enemies and lauding himself and his allies.
....
Over the past three weeks, the tally comes to more than 13 hours of Trump — including two hours spent on attacks and 45 minutes praising himself and his administration, but just 4½ minutes expressing condolences for coronavirus victims. He spent twice as much time promoting an unproven antimalarial drug that was the object of a Food and Drug Administration warning Friday. Trump also said something false or misleading in nearly a quarter of his prepared comments or answers to questions, the analysis shows.
...
The Post analysis of Trump’s daily coronavirus briefings over the past three weeks — from Monday, April 6 to Friday, April 24 — reveals a president using the White House lectern to vent and rage; to dispense dubious and even dangerous medical advice; and to lavish praise upon himself and his government....
Trump has attacked someone in 113 out of 346 questions he has answered — or a third of his responses. He has offered false or misleading information in nearly 25 percent of his remarks. And he has played videos praising himself and his administration’s efforts three times, including one that was widely derided as campaign propaganda produced by White House aides at taxpayer expense.
OK, so why are we still broadcasting them live?
Also, the lines about his failure to offer condolences is telling. He's a malignant narcissist and unable to see the value in human life beyond his own.
More Americans have died in six weeks of Covid-19 than in three years of the Korean War. At some point today or tomorrow, we will pass Vietnam deaths. And the son of a bitch can't even express grief on behalf of the rest of the nation.
Also, the lines about his failure to offer condolences is telling. He's a malignant narcissist and unable to see the value in human life beyond his own.
More Americans have died in six weeks of Covid-19 than in three years of the Korean War. At some point today or tomorrow, we will pass Vietnam deaths. And the son of a bitch can't even express grief on behalf of the rest of the nation.
Saturday, April 25, 2020
Zombies
Jon Chait has a nice profile of three of the wrongest men in the past 40 years of American policy. The impressive consistency of their being wrong would be impressive, if it weren't for the fact that it is precisely their wrongness that seems to appeal to Trump.
The GOP should cease to exist.
The GOP should cease to exist.
Friday, April 24, 2020
This Seems Like A Big Deal
Isn't this a big deal?
Maybe THIS is what Trump meant when he said sunlight was a great disinfectant.
Maybe THIS is what Trump meant when he said sunlight was a great disinfectant.
Thursday, April 23, 2020
What He Said
While Packer retains a little whiff of bothsidesism, this is a very good summation of where we stand.
The Republican Party Should Not Survive Trump
After Romney lost in 2012, the Republican Party did a "post-mortem" on the campaign. There were two competing theories as to why Romney lost. One was insufficient inroads with non-white voters, the other was "missing" white voters, mostly working class whites who understandably were not impressed with Mr. Hedge Fund.
The authors of the postmortem warned that the GOP really needed to do more "minority outreach" as America's demographics were changing in ways that were potentially cataclysmic for Republican hopes for the presidency. Then Trump comes along and mines those "missing" white voters, all while winning a smaller percentage of the popular vote than Romney did.
Trump's surprise win in 2016 has led more than a few people to assume he's broken the normal rules of politics. That's simply not true. He drew an inside straight by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin with under 48.2% of the vote in all three states. In other words, he still didn't win majorities in the Blue Wall. (FWIW, he didn't win majorities in North Carolina, Nebraska's 2nd district, Florida or Arizona.) Trump's victory has been ascribed to anger with the political status quo, that was directed at Hillary Clinton, who represented a political dynasty. Much less has been made of those voters who went to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Ironically, Joe Biden will probably do better with the Johnson voters than the Stein voters.
Anyway, the path for Trump's re-election was always going to be as narrow as his path to getting elected in the first place. What has transpired since his victory is that the GOP has bought into his myth of being a "game changing" politician. He's not. He benefited from some unique circumstances in 2016 and now he's looking at the worst economy since the Great Depression. The last time this happened, it led to almost 40 years of dominance by the Democratic Party.
But it goes beyond Trump's performance in office, it strikes at what an absolute shitshow of a "human being" he is. Has been a disastrous chief executive? Yes. But has he also been a terrible politician? Also, yes.
Just the past few days we have seen two of Trump's worst political impulses on display. First, his pandering to the shambolic remnants of the Tea Party and astroturfed protests shows his inability to see beyond Fox News and OANN. Wide swaths of America including a majority of Republicans think this is nuts. But the mouth breathing base - best typified by the "Karen" screaming at a mask-clad nurse counterprotesting in the streets - is all he sees or cares about.
Secondly, he has absolutely no sense of loyalty to anyone. Look at what he did to Brian Kemp. Kemp is a moron, to be fair. But he followed Hair Furor's edict at that moment in time and started to re-open the economy (mostly to save from spending on UI payments). For whatever reason, Trump throws him under the bus a day later. If you're a Republican politician, why in the name of Tax Cut Jesus would you trust this man? He is a narcissist and a pathological liar. He has absolutely no sense of reciprocal loyalty.
The GOP's decision to look at Trump's 2016 upset victory as some sort of roadmap to electoral success SHOULD be the death knell of their party. They should become a rump minority party of a few of Trump's "poorly educated." They probably won't, but that's a post for another time.
The authors of the postmortem warned that the GOP really needed to do more "minority outreach" as America's demographics were changing in ways that were potentially cataclysmic for Republican hopes for the presidency. Then Trump comes along and mines those "missing" white voters, all while winning a smaller percentage of the popular vote than Romney did.
Trump's surprise win in 2016 has led more than a few people to assume he's broken the normal rules of politics. That's simply not true. He drew an inside straight by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin with under 48.2% of the vote in all three states. In other words, he still didn't win majorities in the Blue Wall. (FWIW, he didn't win majorities in North Carolina, Nebraska's 2nd district, Florida or Arizona.) Trump's victory has been ascribed to anger with the political status quo, that was directed at Hillary Clinton, who represented a political dynasty. Much less has been made of those voters who went to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Ironically, Joe Biden will probably do better with the Johnson voters than the Stein voters.
Anyway, the path for Trump's re-election was always going to be as narrow as his path to getting elected in the first place. What has transpired since his victory is that the GOP has bought into his myth of being a "game changing" politician. He's not. He benefited from some unique circumstances in 2016 and now he's looking at the worst economy since the Great Depression. The last time this happened, it led to almost 40 years of dominance by the Democratic Party.
But it goes beyond Trump's performance in office, it strikes at what an absolute shitshow of a "human being" he is. Has been a disastrous chief executive? Yes. But has he also been a terrible politician? Also, yes.
Just the past few days we have seen two of Trump's worst political impulses on display. First, his pandering to the shambolic remnants of the Tea Party and astroturfed protests shows his inability to see beyond Fox News and OANN. Wide swaths of America including a majority of Republicans think this is nuts. But the mouth breathing base - best typified by the "Karen" screaming at a mask-clad nurse counterprotesting in the streets - is all he sees or cares about.
Secondly, he has absolutely no sense of loyalty to anyone. Look at what he did to Brian Kemp. Kemp is a moron, to be fair. But he followed Hair Furor's edict at that moment in time and started to re-open the economy (mostly to save from spending on UI payments). For whatever reason, Trump throws him under the bus a day later. If you're a Republican politician, why in the name of Tax Cut Jesus would you trust this man? He is a narcissist and a pathological liar. He has absolutely no sense of reciprocal loyalty.
The GOP's decision to look at Trump's 2016 upset victory as some sort of roadmap to electoral success SHOULD be the death knell of their party. They should become a rump minority party of a few of Trump's "poorly educated." They probably won't, but that's a post for another time.
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
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