Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, February 28, 2016

There's Something Happening Here

What it is ain't exactly clear.

Iran is electing it's parliament - the Majles - and more importantly the Assembly of Experts.  It appears as if the Reform candidates have swept the major cities, but in a twist worthy of the American Congress, rural voters have outsized influence in the Majles.

More important is the Assembly of Experts. There are 88 members of the Assembly of Experts and they have one primary role: to select the Supreme Leader.  Potentially, they could remove him as well, but their main role is to select the successor to Ayatollah Khamenei.  Khamenei is quite old and has been ill of late.  Since the Assembly is elected for 8 years, there is a very good chance this Assembly will elect the Third Supreme Leader in Iran's post-revolutionary history.

Khamenei was selected based on his fealty to hardliners and the late Ayatollah Khomeini.  If the Reform elements have a critical mass, they could push the next Supreme Leader in a more moderate direction.  The implications of that could be profound.

Stay tuned.  The possibility exists that the Interior Ministry could once more create fraudulent returns, but if they don't and Reformers carry the day, it could be very good news.

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